“Moscow hopes that Serzh Sargsyan’s plan will work”

Based on information provided by the press service of the President’s Office Serzh Sargsyan, President of Armenia, will pay a two-day official visit to the Russian Federation on March 14. President Sargsyan will have meetings with the country’s top leadership. Based on the statement during the high-level talks, issues related to the bilateral mutual partnership between the two strategic partner countries in a number of sectors, political, trade-economic, humanitarian, cultural, as well as issues related to the integration process within the Eurasian space will be discussed. Presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Vladimir Putin will exchange views on a number of contemporary international and regional issues, as well as will discuss the Nagorno Karabakh conict settlement process.

Within the framework of the official visit, President Sargsyan will be hosted at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations where he will meet with the faculty and students. “168 Hours” interviewed Grigory Trofimchuk, Russian political scientist, security and defense expert.

Mr. Trofimchuk, Serzh Sargsyan, President of Armenia, will pay a two-day visit to Moscow today, where he’ll meet Vladimir Putin, President of Russia. In your opinion, what negotiation agenda should be anticipated from the meeting at this stage?

To some extent also a boring spectrum for Armenia-Russia relations is anticipated, including economic integration cooperation and etc. Experts here anticipate sensations only for the reason that they consider sensations can’t simply lack, that there can’t but be breaking decisions and statements, as the situation around Armenia is neither standard, nor ordinary. In particular, against the background of weak proceeding of the war in Karabakh and activation of Armenia—West relations—EU, NATO—one of the topics of top officials, in all likelihood, will be pre-election period in Armenia, as in this country a lot depends on stability of the political situation.

Besides it, as usual, talks will be launched on loans and finances. Another crucial nature of the visit of Armenian top officials to Moscow should also be touched upon—it’s maintenance of formal balance: Moscow keeps “sharp” balance in its dialogue with Baku and Yerevan. And it isn’t so good, as time for ordinary meetings has ended long ago. Soon, without any exaggeration means for those visits may end.

There is an opinion that sharper topic of negotiations will become NK conflict settlement, although the existent situation in Artsakh is being covered during every likewise meeting. What can be anticipated from the negotiations this time?

The same should be anticipated from Sargsyan-Putin negotiations around Karabakh issue—statements, calls to settle the issue diplomatically, assume peaceful dialogue and political process, as well as seek mutual concessions. Let me mention, that Azerbaijan should provide some reports regarding mutual concessions to Russia’s president, who proposed that initiative, no matter how ridiculous and improper it may be observed by Armenians. In fact, under current state of affairs Armenia needs nothing but security, that Azerbaijani army didn’t penetrate into the depths of those territories.

However, Moscow, can’t provide such guarantees, as currently, when the issue is prepared, NK conflict is living its own life, i.e. death. And as we see neither side can influence for the simple reason that from February 2017 even stir isn’t noticed, like after April 2016. The sides aren’t even ready for that.

I consider in your question the major point was qualification “Artsakh”. The referendum held recently, says much about the current situation, than all other developments: Armenia and its Karabakh friends attempt to settle these issues, not having hopes with anyone. However, I want to say that extra-regional powers will be the first to make use of the settlement results, as there is no democratic Obama in the White House any more,  but a new, sharper Washington. Thus, Artsakh referendum directed to freeing from former Azerbaijani roots, will be used by them in all scale.

Prior to this issue Armenia’s President paid visits to Brussels and Paris. In Brussels he had rather representative meetings, finalization of Armenia-EU talks have also been stated. Currently Armenia seems to restore its relations with the West although not in a former dimension. What importance will Serzh Sargsyan’s visit have for the fate of Armenia-EU framework agreement on account of the past of the Association Agreement (AA)?

Armenia really restores its relations with the West, as global situation is developing and position of the US has become definite against its background. Russia and its partners shouldn’t have considerable hopes with Washington. Thus, Armenia seeks its roads in the future world, for which principally, it’s difficult to blame Yerevan, as Armenia is a sovereign country.

And if Russia itself strives to restore its relations with NATO, why can’t Armenia do the same? And if NATO freezes its relations with Moscow at this or that moment, those relations can’t simultaneously and automatically freeze with Yerevan as well. Naturally, Yerevan and Moscow are connected with a different, their own military and political bloc—CSTO. But Yerevan has repeatedly shown, that in its opinion that bloc doesn’t implement its main functions, in particular, when it refers to the defense of CSTO member Armenia. Thus, Armenia’s campaign to the West will continue.

The West, in particular, the EU, functions rather delicately and wisely. We see that Brussels proposed Yerevan not European association, which led to Ukrainian war, but a “framework agreement”. Essence doesn’t change, meanwhile everything was done that Moscow wasn’t able to submit discontent to Yerevan, like it used to be in case of Kiev. However, the framework agreement and Armenia-NATO cooperation is already a serious package.

I consider Yerevan has matured that balance that after dialogue with Moscow was more “lively”, including finances, which under endless economic crisis objectively end. Even in case of not so cheap loans. And what is the most important, I consider, regarding Serzh Sargsyan’s visit to Brussels, from Russia’s perspective is that many Russian experts learned about it accidentally, only when the visit took place, as basically that visit wasn’t elucidated in Russia.

This speaks of Moscow’s posture, which in this case could manifest itself a bit differently, strictly said, stronger, commenting the satiation as it is. Moscow needs to have its own position toward the West regarding Armenia’s framework activeness. But not such, like in case of Ukraine in 2013.

You said that key to negotiations will be the forthcoming elections. On March 5 pre-election campaign has been officially launched. How will Moscow position itself in Armenian processes? Will Moscow stake on some Armenian power? If yes, who will it support?

Under current state of affairs Moscow positions itself standardly, it always supports the incumbent authorities. Currently there is hope that the president’s program of shift to the parliamentary system will work, as its initiators have planned. Few think of the possibility of non-standard development of the situation, as it’s rather complicated and no one needs it for the time being.

On the whole, pre-election campaign of upcoming parliamentary elections I’d even say seem rather democratic, and this very point will be recorded by Moscow. The West will assess based on the situation. However, already on the level of genes Moscow feels danger from the so-called “color revolution” and in case of Armenia such threats really exist. Although it’s worth reminding once again that this format of shakings has been pushed back to the past, and if something happens in Armenia, it’ll be in its style, which Moscow isn’t capable of calculating, based on the circumstance how it calculated in case of Ukraine. In any case it should be taken into account that there is rather strong opposition in Armenia, the strongest in the entire territory of Eurasian integration.

By Araks Martirosyan