Russia did not gain anything by Pashinyan’s victory. Dennis Sammut
Interview with Dennis Sammut, Director of LINKS (Dialogue, Analysis and Research).
-During the political changes in both Armenia and Azerbaijan the situation on the NK frontline was rather peaceful. After elections of PM in Armenia and after his announcements that NK must be a side of the negotiations, situation is starting to change. We have changes on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in Nakhijevan. The spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense is informing that the Azerbaijani armed forces have undertaken active engineering in some parts of the Azerbaijani border, intending to improve the military positions, which escalated the situation. To Your mind, why did the Azerbaijani side initiate some actions from Nakhijevan’s side?
-There are two issues here. One is the situation on the line of contact and international border; the other is the negotiation process. They are connected and have impact on each other, but they also have their own dynamic.
The situation on the line of contact has been reasonably calm. This was confirmed by the co-Chair of the Minsk process in their statement on 15 May. There was a dangerous moment in my view during the most sensitive days of the street protests in Armenia, because if something happened on the line of contact it could have impacted the turn of events in Yerevan. But nothing happened – in fact the situation was quieter than usual. I see that as very positive.
There is then the situation concerning some construction work ongoing on the Azerbaijani side of the border, in Nakhchivan. I don’t have direct information, but all secondary information indicates this is on-going on the Azerbaijani side of the border, in which case it is not really an issue, and should not be turned into one. The cease fire must continue to be respected.
The other issue is related to the format of the negotiations. This format was agreed by Armenia and Azerbaijan and the international mediators. For this to change all sides must agree. Armenia has ideas about changing the format, so does Azerbaijan. When the two sides agree the format can be changed.
My own opinion is that Stepanakert needs to be involved in the discussions at some point. But there is a lot of work to be done in the present format before that.
–Do You see a threat of large-scale war in NK now? What challenges do you see for the conflict now?
– The change of government in Armenia is creating a new dynamic in the South Caucasus. We are just at the beginning of this process. If the two sides in the Karabakh conflict engage in negotiations seriously the threat of war will ebb, and the prospect for peace will increase. I think Aliyev and Pashinyan should meet as soon as possible, but this meeting should be well prepared, to avoid disappointments.
-What are the interests of Russia in Karabakh now after Pashinian’s victory?
-I do not think anyone now is in any doubt that Russia’s wants to maintain a hegemonic – or at least a privileged – position in the South Caucasus. It has been using Karabakh as a tool in this strategy for many years. Russia did not gain anything by Pashinyan’s victory. Its strategy now is to try not to lose anything either.
-OSCE MG has started to activate its efforts for the negotiations. What results can we wait from the upcoming negotiations when Armenian side suggests participation of Artsakh and Azerbaijani side insists that Artsakh’s participation will mean the end of the negotiations?
-No. Armenia’s call for Stepanakert to participate in the negotiations has been there for a long time. So there is nothing new in Pashinyan’s statement on the matter. It is yet another issue to be negotiated.
-President of the United States Donald Trump wrote in a letter to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, that the coming months will open new prospects for the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, which will create better conditions for the expansion of US-Azerbaijan cooperation. What does this mean? Will he initiate new meetings or process for the settlement of the conflict?
– I cannot read Trump’s mind, so I cannot say what he meant. The US is a co-chair of the Minsk Process. It needs to be active on this issue. I however also believe that this is a time to take the negotiations to the next level. Nothing should be done to spoil this process.
-How do You assess the announcements of our new authorities about the settlement of the NK conflict? To You mind, will the Government of Pashinian be able to have success in this conflict and how?
-Nikol Pashinyan has a very huge domestic agenda to deal with. I am sure this will be his immediate priority. He has signalled continuity in foreign and security policy, and on Nagorno-Karabakh too. Sooner or later he will develop his own position on these issues too.
ARAKS MARTIROSYAN
