Armenia will have a specific status in the Customs Union
Interview with Andrey Suzdaltsev, deputy dean of World Economy Department at the Russian State University School of Economics, expert of the International and European Research Center, and political science.
-A memorandum of understanding for cooperation was signed between Armenia and the Eurasia Economic Commission. Since September 3rd active processes are going on for the purpose of Armenia’s membership with the Customs Union. What is your opinion on this?
-That is positive for the development of Eurasia integration. Armenia’s membership with the Customs Union is positive for the development of Eurasia integration project. There have been tough discussions about Armenia’s membership with the Customs Union. There are questions that are unanswered so far as it is not clear how the Custom Union regime can be preserved in the condition of absence of physical border with Armenia. This is a very serious problem. Besides that, the CIS rules will have impact on Armenia’s status as Russia is a member. I think Armenia will have a specific status in Eurasia integration process, and it is what will be discussed in the near future. No other way is realistic for Armenia’s membership in consideration of the fact that there are no common borders between the CU and Armenia.
-What is Armenia’s prospect in the Customs Union in consideration of the announcements of the Belarus and Kazak presidents saying that Armenia cannot become a CU member in the near future?
-You noticed it correctly that two partners of Russia in this format – Kazakhstan and Belarus – are skeptical about the enlargement prospect of this new formation as they see risks for their economies. Besides that, they understand that Armenia will have some privileges and maybe subsidies which they would like to have too.
-Mr. Suzdaltsev, the Customs Union countries are exporters of energetic resources, but Armenia is an importer. How can this problem be solved?
-Yes, two out of the three members of the CU are exporters, and one is a transit country. Armenia does not have energetic resources and is an importer. There are calculations that the CU border is not limited with energetic resources, even though export and trade are important. Maybe the united energetic policy is based on such calculation. However, the most important thing is the connection between the areas.
-You spoke about the problem of absence of borders. Do you think the railway of Abkhazia may be restored? Can it solve the problem?
-For now the possibility is 50/50. I think there may some change of the situation as Georgia has a new Prime-Minister and president. Georgia is a country where the policy does not primarily depend on the president as it was during Sahakashvili’s office. Development of relations between Georgia and Russia depends on the solution of Armenia’s transport issue.
-If the railway of Abkhazia re-opens, will it solve the problem of the absence of border with the CU?
-It will partially solve the problem as the infrastructure will be strategic, it will help to transport most goods, Armenia will start to breathe, but of course it would be good to have borders. The ideal case would be if Georgia decided to become CU member as well, but it is impossible.
-After becoming CU member, how can Armenia further cooperate with EU?
-This is very strange and it is like the casus of Belarus. As you know, Belarus participates in the Eastern Partnership Project, but meanwhile also is a member of Eurasia integration project and Customs Union. I think there should be no skepticism.
-When do you think Armenia may become CU member? Can you tell us any term?
-If Armenia’s status is defined, which is under discussion now, I think within one year it will be possible. There may be other political decisions, which may make the process even faster. It is not excluded.
-It seems there are problems within the Customs Union too. Kazakhstan does not like certain things. There is an opinion that the CU may not be success and may collapse.
-I do not think so because Belarus and Kazakhstan are interested in support from Russia, and such support is possible only in case of participation in the integration process. Can you say how Belarus can exist without Russia’s support? It cannot. For this reason we should not worry about the CU’s success.
-What out Kazakhstan?
-There is strong opposition in Kazakhstan, and there is also competition for geopolitical orientation, however, the opposition will not be able to make Nazarbayev change his geopolitical direction.
By Gayane Khachatryan
