To unsafe Russia
While the attention of the Armenian society was focused on the pension fund reform and the discussions of the next year budget, in Russia a statement was made, which gives us grounds to be very concerned in the long run. It is no secret that Armenia’s economy depends on Russia. After becoming member of the Customs Union this dependence will grow. It means the economic and political fluctuation of Russia directly affects the political life of Armenia. What can we expect from the Russian economy in the upcoming 10-20 years? Let us mention not the best times await Russia and its economy. The annual growth of Russia’s GDP will be 3,1% till 2020 and during 2026-2030 the rate will be lower – 1,8%. If back in March of this year they’d speak of innovations and investments then this time these words were pushed back and instead conservative phrases were used. Now let’s speak about the most noteworthy thing.
These pessimistic remarks came not from international donor organizations but from the analysis of the ministry of economic development of Russia. It means these are official data and were presented by the minister of economic development Alexey Ulyakaev. This is the case when the journalists blamed the government not for being too optimistic but for being super pessimistic. As a response to this Ulyakaev said, “We should be happy about one thing.” Moreover, the minister had become very sincere in front of the State Duma MPs by saying that the Russian economy is in its worst shape since the 2008 global crisis. “I think during the past five months there has never been such an unfavorable situation,” he said. Alost all the sectors were revised. Investment volumes were reduced, etc. As a result of this, the economic growth rate of Russia will lag behind from the world average. And the ratio of Russia’s economy will drop in the world. How will this affect Armenia? It is not hard to assume how. The abstruse economic situation in Russia will drastically impact the volume of monetary remittance from Russia to Armenia and the bi-lateral trade turnout will reduce. It will be naïve to speak about the possible investments of Russia to Armenia because it will be Russia needing investments.
As of Armenia, can we now believe that Armenia’s economic growth projected for this year will be 5-7% as the government claims? But in order to get a little close to developed states even 5-7% is not enough. It means if we believe the Russian predictions then by entering the Customs Union Armenia will strongly reduce its chances of development and will appear in an economic swamp and it’s going to be very difficult to get out of the swamp depending on various foreign factors. Is there a light in the tunnel though? As a response to this the minister said that there was if serious infrastructure developments were realized. But the Russian don’t expect development of infrastructures projected for the next few years. The only positive thing was that Ulyukaev spoke candidly about the actual situation unlike our government, which prefers to hide the reality from its citizens.
By Babken Tunyan
