«If the world’s only super power can not handle Putin, who else can?»
Interview with geopolitical and foreign policy analyst at «European Policy Centre» in Brussels: Amanda Paul
– Amanda, what is your assessment to the Russian president Putin’s latest press conference on March 4 and to his statetments about Ukraine, the new government, Yanukovych and the problem of Crimea?
– Putin’s press statement is simply another element in Russia’s strategy to try and convince the world that Ukraine’s new leadership is a threat to the country and human rights of minorities, particularly ethnic Russians and that Moscow is acting in response to this. This is a total fabrication of the truth. Ethnic Russians in Crimea have not had their human rights violated and they are not under attack from radical Ukrainians. Crimea has a special status in the Ukrainian state, being the only autonomous republic in Ukraine, and Russians in Crimea are able to fully take advantage of their rights in every way possible. Russia’s actions have created Europe’s gravest crisis since the Cold War and the disgraceful spread of propaganda and lies through Russian Tv has further increased fear and tension in Ukraine, including in Eastern regions which is now in a very volatile state too.
– Putin says there are no Russian troops on the ground, it’s «Self defense forces» that formed the people of Crimea, although it’s quite hard to believe in this. And the ukrainians, particularly the previous ambassador of Ukraine in Armenia Olexandr Bozhko, stated that Russian authorities move som people from Russia to the territory of Crimea and eastern regions of Ukraine to provocate a conflict. He says that Putin has an aim to fail the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine. In your opinion, what is the real aim of the Kremlin in Ukraine, is that a military aim or more political?
– Nobody believes Putin’s explanation concerning the forces on the ground. There are enough eye witness accounts to prove these are Russian soldiers, not least because of the guns they are carrying. Russia has illegally moved its troops from its base at Sevastapol to all parts of Crimea, other troops have come from Russia to support them. Russia is an occupying force, violating international law and in full violation of the various security agreements it has signed with Ukraine. The situation in Crimea has been created, provoked and manipulated by Russia with the Kremlin’s propaganda machine spreading lies and fear via television and other media channels.
Putin’s aim is political. He has lost his grip on Ukraine with the departure of Yanukovych and other pro-Russian elements of the Party of Region so is using Crimea’s ethnic Russian as a tool to create instability as a means to an ends, with the aim of having an end result that will see a change of personalities in Kyiv to include some individuals that Russia deems as able to look after its interests. Moscow is sending a message to the international community that it will not allow it to define rules on the post-soviet territory without taking into consideration Russia’s interests. Russia wants a government in place in Kyiv that will take into account Russia’s «interests». Hence it is important that the new interim government in Ukraine works quickly to shore up support in all regions of Ukraine, through an «inclusive» process of governance; by appointing a good negotiator for dialogue with the Russians, being ready to even grant a higher level of autonomy to Crimea and by creating a sort of memorandum for unity of the country.
– One Armenian politician said recently that after the Soviet Union we have the revival of the «Evil Empire», which is much more unpredictable, than the USSR was. Do you agree with this?
– I actually believe that Putin is totally predictable. The draconian methods that he uses to try and achieve his goals are well known. He is stuck in a cold war mentality. He doesn’t seem to understand that his methods are building up great hatred and dislike towards him both outside and inside Russia. His strategy towards Ukraine, has actually helped to consolidate Ukraine’s European integration and strengthen EU commitment to wards to country. Russia can not stop Ukraine from moving in this direction. Doing this he is isolating and damaging Russia. Yet Putin is not a rational man. He clearly believes challenging the West like this is worth the gamble and he surely must have calculated and weighed up how far the west will go in response.
– Then how do you see the solution of this conflict especially in the context of the huge pressure by the West?
– The conflict seems more likely to be resolved by negotiations/diplomacy as there is no desire for any sort of military conflict. While there is a lack of appetite from the EU for economic sanctions and freezing of Russian assets because of not wanting to risk economic ties with Russia (France, Germany and UK included) meaning the EU has a «values versus interests» dilemma at the same time the US has been very strong and been explicit that it will not tolerate Russian aggression which seems to have had some success. After all if the world’s only super power can not handle Putin, who else can?
Interviewed by Aram Sargsyan
