War, Piece, Collaboration
War, Piece, Collaboration
Will Serz Sargsyan leave the power to Robert Kocharyan or Levon Ter-Petrosyan? This question may seem strange as both of the previous presidents are in evident or hidden rival against the current president. The logic of the current political processes is that Serzh Sargsyan’s team opposes to Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s and Robert Kocharyan’s teams. However, it is difficult to guess whether the ongoing processes reflect the reality or the goal is creation of imitation. It would be better to look for the answer in the history and similar precedents in the past.
The Republic of Armenia has had three presidents – Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. They are interconnected with strong as strong as their public conflict of interests seems to be. Levon Ter-Petrosyan made Robert Kocharyan president, and the latter made Serzh Sargsyan president. The first transformation was public, and the second one was established through some conflict of interests following the transfer of the power.
If there are no force-majeure conditions, in three years it will be the turn of Serzh Sargsyan to pass the power to someone. Who will Serzh Sargsyan make president? The best answer for now would be anyone but not Levon Ter-Petrosyan or Robert Kocharyan. The history makes us believe that it is not excluded that either Kocharyan or Ter-Petrosyan may be the next president. There is an opinion that Armenia cannot develop in the condition of a “triangle of presidents,” and any change would be possible only through getting rid of the tree angles of the triangle. However, those who support this opinion are connected with either of the parties of the triangle, or two of the parties simultaneously. Political powers and people out of the influence of either of these three sides of the triangle have been forced out of political processes. This was done either through joint efforts or separation on the part of one party of the triangle. The problem is not in the personalities of either of the three presidents. Maybe they personally hate each other but in the current political situation they show that they are close friends. The problem is in the historical past and conditions upon which they became presidents. All three presidents are Karabakh war movement participants, even though they may from time to time try to diminish the role of each other in the movement. All three presidents have contributed the victory in Karabakh war, and all of them were born from a movement that made Armenia independent from the USSR. In fact factors similar to this one were decisive in bringing these people to power and transferring the power from one to another. Accordingly, all three presidents, whether directly or indirectly, have participated and contributed to the transfer of Armenia’s sovereignty – in the beginning de-jure, and later de-facto transfer.
Russian president Vladimir Putin who believes the collapse of the Soviet Union is the biggest disaster of the 21st century wants to “eliminate the consequences of that disaster” by creating a geopolitical union that could be an analogue of the Soviet Union. Logically all three presidents of Armenia have to be against Putin’s policy to recruit Armenia in Putin’s pet project, however, they are not. Indeed one of them leads the integration process, and the other two encourage. Why?
It is impossible to answer this question before history establishes facts and precedents. However, as far as there are no answers to this question and other similar questions, the power in Armenia will ultimately be transferred to one of the sides of this triangle composed of the three presidents. Alternatively, the power may be transferred to one of the two political powers that were established 26 or 23 years ago to serve for the interest of the latter presidents. This is a system, the essential factors of which are not coming out of Armenia only. This means that this system works notwithstanding what the participants and actors of this system think and want.
Any of the three presidents would be happy to get rid of this triangle and arrange the transfer of the power according to his own plan. This is proven also by the fact that different names of potential presidents are being circulated in political circles now. This may mean that Serzh Sargsyan wants to go out of the triangle of presidents. It is difficult to guess whether this can happen.
P.S. At least two politicians that had equal roles in the independence and self-determination process of Armenia are no more roles in this process as one of them, Vazgen Sargsyan, has been killed, and the other one, Vano Siradeghyan, is in exile.
By Garnik Gevorgyan
