The USA May Record a Precedential Achievement in NKR Conflict
Kayts Minasyan, analyst at the Center of Strategic Studies of France, is the interviewee of “168 hours.”
–Mr. Minasyan, after the terror act in Paris, the international community was actively discussing how the policy led by the West or reflection to likewise challenges will be. And following any terror act, discussions are launched on how the West, the USA and Europe will respond to these challenges, will they discuss shortcomings of that policy pursued inside the Middle East and Europe? Isn’t there a need for a policy change?
-Even if Europe changes its strategy in Syria, I don’t think there will be no more terror acts, they will continue, and, to my mind, Europe shouldn’t change its policy, as, firstly, Europe doesn’t have any presence in Syria, states like France and England bomb the Islamic State. Perhaps, tougher and more complete strategy should be worked out, however, I don’t consider they should suspend current policy. We need to wait for the decision by Brussels. I don’t expect any change in the policy pursued by Europe.
-Opinions are being circulated that terror acts in Syria and in the Middle East are a reply to wrong policy by the West, out of which, allegations exist that the West should revise its policy.
-Yes, there are experts, who think if the West doesn’t bomb Syria, the Islamic State, terrorists won’t target European capitals. It’s more than clear. However, I don’t share that idea, as I consider, we entered a process of globalization, and it has two faces, one of them is clean and positive, and gives hopes, and the other side, which is negative, dangerous and martial—this is the reality. Even if not the issue of Syria, Libya and Iraq, I don’t consider peace will be established in the world, as military centers are much, and automatically Jihadists will take actions, as we saw in Paris, and yesterday—in Brussels, 11-12 years ago in Spain and England. This means, the deeper we penetrate into globalization, the bigger terrorism, jihadism, and fascism will be implemented. This is the point. Other efforts will be exerted to settle these issues. I don’t consider only by bombing Syria and bases of the Islamic State, you may solve the issue. Other means are needed, and as it’s adopted to say in the West, only instead of hard power, soft power should be implemented, emphasis should be put on education, integration policy, cooperation and economic development. I consider, hard power means are clear, however, they aren’t sufficient, and the problem won’t be solved only through bombing. Just the contrary.
–Unsteady and shaky situation of global security can’t bypass Armenia and the South Caucasus as well, which is located near sources of instability. Thus, security threats are becoming more crucial. To your mind, will current fragile international security strengthen possible Aliyev-Sargsyan meeting in Washington, to record success in the West in this context? That is, will NKR conflict settlement will be more highlighted against this background or not?
-Basically, not. Firstly, for the reason that NK conflict nowadays doesn’t refer this issue. Possibly, Chechnya and Azerbaijan, as Islamic states, will refer to the issues linked to radicalism, however, indirectly it may found its reflection in NK conflict as well. Accordingly, I don’t think there is any linkage, and that NK conflict will be highlighted. Also due to the reason, that Armenia has quiet borders with Iran and Georgia, these countries have no connection to radical Islamism, i.e. with Sunnis, as Iran is a Shia state against the Islamic State. There is an issue with Turkey and Azerbaijan, however, I don’t think at the moment Turkey may make use of radical Islamists against Armenia, and even Azerbaijan, as for radical Islamists Turkey and Azerbaijan are not upright and pure Muslim states, therefore, if all these enlarges in the region, Azerbaijan and Turkey will be the first to suffer, rather than Armenia. As you know, radical Islamists are active now in Turkey, terror acts are organized. In this context I may say, that Karabakh issue became so global, and this is its advantage, but until now I don’t consider, that the security environment which is spread from the Middle East to Europe, will impact on Karabakh conflict.
-Mr. Minasyan, some experts hope that refraction will be recorded in the USA, there are even standpoints that Obama will appear with a special initiative. What expectations do you have from this meeting?
-If we observe Obama’s steps and resolutions throughout the last year, from Iran to Cuba, then we may expect Obama’s initiative on conflicts in NKR, Israel and Palestine, Syria, and why not on Iraq. It’s a question, whether for the USA Karabakh issue is a privilege or not. If it’s a privilege, we may expect an initiative, and if no, we shouldn’t wait for a serious step. In my opinion, Obama, even if he speaks, he will speak of the investment of survey mechanism, how this mechanism may be implemented, as it’s a serious initiative for the USA and was approved by the Congress and State Department. If they succeed to invest the mechanism in Karabakh, many things will change not only in Karabakh, but in other zones as well. This may become an unprecedented achievement.
By Araks Martirosyan
