Threat of Karabakh’s Large-scale War is more Realistic: Felgenhauer

“World leading powers have no any liaison to tension in Karabakh,” Pavel Felngenhauer, Russian military analyst, told 168.am, touching upon intense military operations on NKR conflict zone.

Felgenhauer, following the developments and type of military equipment applied on the Line of Contact, told it more resembles war, but it’s not a war yet, as not entire Line of Contact and Armenia-Azerbaijan border weren’t engaged in it.

However, in his words, the sides have been long prepared for it—purchased weaponry, deployed troops on the Line of Contact and on the border, trained commanders and instructors. “And although they initially thought they’d fight against the background of domestic policy issues, and by that everything will end, and some weakening will be observed, this didn’t happen. Currently something inexplicable is going on, especially when there are actors who’d like to make use of the situation and reach considerable success. So that threat to further tension is becoming more realistic,” Felgenhauer anticipated.

Touching upon reasons of sudden outbreak of military operations, the analyst said that reasons are in Armenia and in Azerbaijan conditioned by domestic policy issues. Russian analyst mentioned Azerbaijan, as he made reference to allegations of Azerbaijani officials as well, that the Azerbaijani side was the first to start. In Felgenhauer’s conviction, not a single external actor instigated such tension. “I consider likewise outbreak was surprising to Turkey and Russia as well,” he said. However, according to the latter, this is a motive for Moscow, which allows to more increase Russian influence in the South Caucasus.

“Naturally, Russia will make use of this, attempting to reestablish its role, as this is a crucial territory for Russia, as well as relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan,” he said. And how Russia will reestablish its impact, Pavel Fergenhauer said, it’s early to speak of that.

By Araks Martirosyan