“Russia Possesses Limited Leverages to Exert Pressure over Azerbaijan for Aggression against Karabakh”
“No progress is observed in negotiations,” Alexander Skakov, PhD in History, Working Group Coordinator at the Central Eurasia Research Center, RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, told “168 Hours,” touching upon the anticipated Aliyev-Sargsyan meeting on May 16 in Vienna, with the participation of John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State, Sergey Lavrov, RF MFA, and Jean-Marc Ayrault, French Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Note, as stated earlier, OSCE MG Co-chairs released a statement, which said, “Our Foreign Ministers [Russia, France and the USA] are prepared to facilitate this meeting next week in Vienna. Their main objectives will be to reinforce the ceasefire regime, and to seek agreement on confidence-building measures that would create favorable conditions for resuming negotiations on a comprehensive settlement on the basis of elements and principles under discussion. There can be no success in negotiations if violence continues, and there can be no peace without a negotiation process. We reiterate that there is no military solution to the conflict.”
Skakov stated, as usual, nothing new shouldn’t be anticipated from that meeting, and it won’t have any after-effect, although any meeting, negotiation is better that its absence. “We all know, that presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan have repeatedly met with participation of mediators, and those meetings gave no result. Everything remained the same as it used to,” added Skakov.
In his assessment, the most crucial here is mediators’ coherent disposition. According to Skakov, if they agree their dispositions and work in the direction of implementing them, by investing serious efforts to exert serious pressure over Azerbaijan, in that case some progress may be expected in negotiations. “Now time has come for addressed statements. However, unfortunately, I don’t observe coherence of dispositions by mediators and the will to exert pressure over Azerbaijan,” Skakov said.
To the question why Moscow doesn’t make targeted statements, moreover, these days it continues to supply armaments to Azerbaijan, he replied, “Armaments are being supplied according to the agreements concluded a few years ago, and non-performance of those agreements may have its serious moral and material implications. One may touch upon the fact, that those agreements have been signed by mistake and are wrong, however it’s difficult to blame Moscow for implementation of its responsibilities. Although I understand, that some impact means should be thought of. As for pressures, Russia has limited leverages towards Azerbaijan, as the possibility of retaliatory pressure is existent. Azerbaijan also has its own influence and pressure leverages towards Moscow, they are serious economic interests in Russian companies in Azerbaijan, active and steady Azerbaijani lobby in Russia, Azerbaijani Diaspora in Russia, successfully led by Baku. Russia isn’t even able to normally influence its closest ally Belarus, what can we say of Azerbaijan?”
Touching upon supplies postponing upon USD 200 million loan agreement, Alexander Skakov stated, that time is needed for agreement implementation. “Agreements with Azerbaijan are also implemented with time, in the period of 5-6 years, thus, the factor of time should be taken into consideration. Secondly, they shouldn’t only consider in Armenia, that Russia is guilty in this or that, it should do this or that, they should think of personal responsibility—corruption, Armenia’s budget and other likewise factors. Thus, I consider, if everything were great regarding domestic policy and corruption, Armenia would have faced less problems,” Skakov concluded.
By Araks Martirosyan
