Putin should Make Sure that His Forces aren’t Provoking Violence: M.Bryza
Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting held in Vienna after the April war and negotiations of NK conflicting sides with John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State, and Federica Mogherini, EU High Representative and Vice-President of the European Commission, gave higher level to the settlement process. “168 Hours” talked on its productivity and perspectives to Matthew Bryza, former US Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Former US Assistant Secretary of State for the South Caucasus.
Mr. Bryza, due to the efforts of OSCE MG Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting has been launched in Vienna, and agreement was reached to taking measures in installation of investigative mechanisms, expansion of the existing Office of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson in Office, possible resumption of negotiations for the conflict settlement. What is your assessment to Vienna talks? What did it give to the conflicting parties?
I think this was a very positive outcome in Vienna and exactly what was needed at this point. The achievements you cited, are of course, quite important. It’s important to install investigative mechanisms, it’s also really important that presidents have pledged to meet already next month to begin negotiations again for a comprehensive settlement. It’s also important that they talked on installing cameras on the Line of Contact, and all these are signs that the sides wish to reduce the military tension, but they also want to do the most important thing, which are the negotiations on a comprehensive settlement. A very good specific outcome. And secondly, I think, it’s of great importance that secretary Kerry himself participated. I was critical of the Obama administration for its lack of engagement, right after the April 2, when ceasefire agreement was established with Moscow’s mediation, without the Minsk Group participation. This is different now. So we have got almost highest level of engagement of the US government, I just hope that such an involvement is continuous for a while, including after the tension goes down, so that we can get a serious success in the comprehensive settlement.
Today Novruz Mammadov, Deputy Head of the President Administration, stated that Baku didn’t agree on extension of Kasprzyk’s office in Vienna, and only agreed to maintain ceasefire for the forthcoming negotiations. It turns out, that right after the meeting in Vienna the Azerbaijani side refrains from its liabilities. What does this mean?
There is different understanding of what specifically was agreed in Vienna. It’s very common. It happens all the time in this sort of negotiations. It’s important that the sides find mechanisms as this is a MG job and the Co-chairs need to clarify what inside conclusions were and make sure of the sight of the same understanding they are committed to. Maybe other people are thinking that Azerbaijan is backing off from what they committed but I don’t know exactly, what Mammadov said. So, therefore, again this is what the Co-chairs need to clarify.
How productive will this high level of engagement of the USA be, on account of the level of tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia? What will this format change?
Who knows which one is productive? I hope so. But it depends on how you define productive. Usually I don’t think that a meeting for the sake of a meeting is important in itself. This time it’s a little bit different as the two countries were so more close to an actual war, so presidents of the two countries are sitting to have a conversation about anything, that is important. Of course, I don’t expect them to reach a real breakthrough in the settlement talks, because they are now just beginning again to talk to each other. I think maybe doors are opening of opportunities, because both sides I think, were shaken by the intensiveness of fighting. I think neither side wants a fighting now but I think it was a provocation, and I think now we got all the sides awaken and now trying to restore the spirit of the activity of the Minsk Group. This is a promising set of developments. I don’t expect anything to be decided in the next meeting, but I hope, that the presidents will reinforce that positive momentum.
Information was being circulated that Vladimir Putin, RF president, has launched a Security Council meeting and discussed the current situation on NK conflict zone, as well as the results of negotiation of Vienna talks, however, there was an impression that Moscow worked with the West. What do you think of this? What should we expect from the policy led by Moscow?
I haven’t seen cooperation between Russia and the West, until now president Putin has tried to leave the impression that he is only one that matters, so that’s why he sent Prime Minister Medvedev, MoD Shoygu, MFA Lavrov to Yerevan and Baku right after the fighting, without any coordination at all with Washington and Paris. So, if what you said is true, that’s a bit developing, if Putin wants to work with Paris and Washington. But I believe what I see.
Do you think that Moscow will go on with its separate policy after Vienna as well?
I can’t say. I can’t say, that Putin sent a signal for working with the West or not. I think there are reasons why he should change this direction, the reasons why he should make sure that his forces aren’t provoking violence, and he should make sure that he’s working with the MG Co-chairs, because, the situation is so dangerous and if Moscow wants to play with that situation for its own geo-political interests, provoking a terrible conflict, I hope he has changed this direction, but I’m unable to predict what he actually has, you see. I hope so.
By Araks Martirosyan
