What will Sargsyan and Aliyev Discuss at the Second Meeting after the War?

After the April four-day war presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet for the second time. OSCE MG Co-chairs Igor Popov (Russia), James Warlick (USA) and Pierre Andrieu (France) released a statement based on the results of meetings with Azerbaijani FM Elmar Mammadyarov on May 31 and Armenia’s FM Edward Nalbandian, stating that during the meetings the issue of giving life to resolutions approved during the summit launched in Vienna on May 16 have been touched upon. Moreover, after the meeting with RA FM Edward Nalbandian OSCE MG Co-chair James Warlick of the USA wrote on his Twitter microblog, “Excellent discussion with Armenia FM on implementation of Vienna summit incl proposal for an OSCE investigative mechanism.”

“The Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Co-Chairs delivered to the Ministers for the consideration of the sides draft documents on expanding the existing office of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office and establishing an OSCE investigative mechanism. The Ministers confirmed the Presidents’ agreement on the next round of talks to be held in June with an aim to resuming negotiations on a comprehensive settlement,” the statement reads.

It’s known that during Aliyev-Sargsyan meeting held on May 16 in Vienna agreements were reached on unconditional implementation of accords concluded in the period of 1994-1995, installation of investigative mechanisms, expansion of the existing Office of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson in Office. And although a few days later Novruz Mammadov, deputy head of Azerbaijani presidential administration, stated that they didn’t agree on expansion of the Office, Azerbaijan immediately changed its disposition after U.S. Vice President J.Biden’s call, and it was approved by various officials that there were such agreements.

Moreover, Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, delivered a speech during Azerbaijani national celebration—on the day of the Republic, saying that Vienna meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents was successful. “Our territorial integrity is not an issue for negotiations, and I consider, that Vienna meeting was successful. We anticipate, that soon, without wasting time, rather serious, as mediators say, substantive negotiations will be launched,” he said. And it’s not clear yet what kind of discussions will be initiated by the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan during the meeting scheduled this month. Some analysts consider that the sides will be obliged to initiate substantive negotiations , and some claim that Azerbaijan will have to finally agree on OSCE proposal of installation of investigative mechanisms.

felgengauer Pavel Felgenhauer, Russian military analyst, told “168 Hours” both Vienna meeting, and to all probabilities, the forthcoming meeting as well will end with no results. According to him, political will is necessary for ceasefire and nothing else. “The sides, basically don’t want wide-scale military operations around Karabakh, however, they should also want not to wage a war, meanwhile we currently observe that the sides are more and more armed with time, getting prepared for war, gather troops on the contact line, use tension on NK conflict zone for internal political purposes. Azerbaijan has such reasons as well, thus, likewise meetings are not so essential, as serious decisions may be made without such meetings, and find their reflection in the situation on the contact line,” Felgenhauer said. In his conviction, during the forthcoming meeting, to all probabilities, main accentuations of agreements of the previous meeting will be developed.

However, he considers serious progress shouldn’t be anticipated from likewise meetings, proof of which was Vienna meeting. In his conviction without establishment of ceasefire they can’t help the situation of strengthening of mechanisms for security means.

Stanislav Tarasov, columnist at Rex agency, Russian political scientist, told “168 Hours” that the Co-chairs, which as a result of working by tandem brought Sargsyan and Aliyev to the negotiation table, oblige the conflicting parties to go to compromises and not to resume war. In his words, the sides will be exerted to agree on installation of investigative mechanisms. According to Tarasov after the American calls to Azerbaijan the changing Azerbaijani dispositions hint that Azerbaijan is imposed to agree. “I think, during the forthcoming meeting talks will develop around approving the final agreements on already stated installation of mechanisms, after which the sides maybe will pass on to substantive talks. However, I don’t exclude that prior to that Azerbaijan will initiate another attack, as the process is not in its favor. After installation of mechanisms substantive negotiations will be developed around updated Madrid Principles. And here I highlight the fact, that Stepanakert will also start to participate in negotiations to resolve its destiny. As you remember, Igor Popov said, that NK participation at a certain phase of negotiations is anticipated, thus, I consider, that phase is not so far, if Azerbaijan won’t initiate new wide-scale tension,” Stanislav Tarasov said.

Alexandr Rar In his turn, Alexander Rar, German analyst, in a brief talk expressed hope that the sides will agree on security intensification, to continue further negotiations without any issues. In his words, this is a crucial issue for OSCE, in which Germany has its role. “As a result of installation of these mechanisms the obtained data will become a big argument in hands of mediators against the side, which initiates tension and will allow to undertake respective means,” he said. He thinks, the sides are far from substantive negotiations, as their have disagreements regarding installation of investigative mechanisms. “The war has just ended, although it lasted for a few days. At this phase for the sides, on account of moods in the conflicting states, it’s almost impossible to resume substantive negotiations,” the German analyst said.