After Presidential Meetings Threat of War wasn’t Eliminated in Karabakh: Felgenhauer
“Any mediator of NK conflict, including Russia, isn’t interested in a new war in Karabakh,” Pavel Felgenhauer, Russian military and political analyst, told 168.am, touching upon the developments around NK conflict settlement process.
Note, these days Sergey Lavrov, RF Foreign Minister, was on official visit to Baku, who stated there that parties to the conflict are as close to the settlement, as ever. However Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev stated prior to it, that Nagorno-Karabakh will never obtain independence, moreover, Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity will be restored. “All the mediators share the opinion of phase-to-phase settlement of the conflict. Nagorno-Karabakh will never obtain independence, the second Armenian statehood won’t be established in the territory of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity should be restored, the status quo should be changed, occupied territories should be liberated, and Azerbaijani population should return there,” I.Aliyev said, introducing the Azerbaijani variant of the settlement.
In his turn Serzh Sargsyan, in an interview with Arabic “Al Mayadeen” TV stated that NK population may live a safe life exclusively out of the borders of Azerbaijan, stressing that as a security guarantor of Karabakhi people, this was and is one of the most crucial issues. “And that security may only be provided out of the borders of Azerbaijan. There is no any doubt that upon some mean joke Karabakh will appear within the borders of Azerbaijan, not a single Armenian will remain in Karabakh. Thus, the most important is that NKR wasn’t included in the borders of Azerbaijan,” Armenia’s president stressed.
According to Pavel Felgenhauer reflections of the two presidents edify that presidential meetings throughout recent months didn’t provide any essential progress to the settlement process, besides the mutual agreement on expansion of the number of observers, which won’t considerably stabilize the situation on the contact line, when the situation escalates. “In fact, the issue is not in the number of observers, in case of activity of any side the mediators know who the initiator is and what they can do. In this case the observers can only record violations, which side is the violator and this will be restricted within that process.
Under current situation the main issue is that the sides haven’t changed their approaches and moods after the April war, moreover, they became more sober and cautious; each side maintains its position, both Sargsyan and Aliyev.
This is a dangerous situation, and mutually acceptable settlement was found, that’s why the presidents in their speeches stress their priorities to the settlement: for Armenia—recognition of Artsakh’s independence, clarification of its status, for Azerbaijan—return of territories. To say, that the sides will go to such war today, will be less probable, as they are at the restoration phase, after which nothing is excluded.
Situations in Armenia and Azerbaijan will be a decisive factor, chronology of conflict sharpening shows that the situation inside the countries was often decisive. Lots of internal issues are existent both in Azerbaijan and Armenia, in particular, also economic, and in Azerbaijan—oil,” Felgenhauer said. In his conviction today neither the USA, nor Russia, nor any other country needs tension. In his words, observations by Sergey Lavrov are simply optimism and an attempt to push the sides to negotiations.
“Presently Russia, like all mediators, needs to eliminate the threat for war resumption, Moscow and Washington are actively cooperating to that end, which can’t but be noticed. Moscow intends to maintain certain leading position, which is reflected by Sergey Lavrov’s activeness, however, deeply cooperating with Western mediators,” he noticed.
Commenting on possibility of ceasefire maintenance, if one of the mediators repeatedly concludes new armaments agreements with one of the parties to the conflict, Felgenhauer stated that he touched upon the issue many times, claiming, that it’s one of the means to maintain Russia’s influence in Transcaucasia, from which Russia won’t withdraw for Armenia, as Russia needs influence not only in Armenia, but in the Transcaucasia as well. “Thus, Russia keeps on providing armaments to Azerbaijan, however, it provided equivalent armaments with reasonable prices to Armenia as well, and ceasefire maintenance depends on intention of the sides, in particular, of militants,” Felgenhauer concluded.
By Araks Martirosyan
