A New Situation has been Established in Yerevan, to which the Kremlin isn’t Ready: Vadim Dubnov
Interview with Vadim Dubnov, Russian political analyst and columnist.
Vadim, “Sasna Tsrer” group, which has taken the Police Patrol Service Regiment in Erebuni district on July 17, continues keeping a few policemen as hostages, negotiating with the authorities, parallel to which protest actions are launched in Yerevan. Some consider members of “Sasna Tsrer” heroes, and some—terrorists. In your opinion what’s going on in Yerevan and why?
After Sunday the situation has changed. Initially it seemed to them that the president of the Republic of Armenia obviously gains from the existent situation, as he obtains essential trump cards as a result of this situation. Even opponents were obliged not directly, but to indirectly not to support activities of those people, who have taken the police headquarters. It seemed, that it gained. The second circumstance, which was beneficial for him for external use, i.e. it could show Moscow how dangerous the situation inside the country is, and how dangerous is exertion of pressure against it, as it’s observed, pressure is existent.
However, throughout last hours, from yesterday, the situation started to change, as support was raised in favor of “Sasna Tsrer” group members, and it’s not important, who gathered in the Republic Square, but the fact that political powers will come into focus. The situation existent on Saturday already lacks today. If on Sunday the figures could express neutral position, today they should seek for exits to assume some role in that indefiniteness. The most important is that what seemed a privilege, i.e. the fact that the president could have introduced this as a reflection to Karabakh, currently it may become a Karabakh reflection. The fact of Moscow’s pressure in NK issue maybe is not obvious, however, discontent to that direction will develop in the anticipated phase.
Many observe a connection between this situation and negotiations around NK. You know, today many speak of withdrawal of regions around NK and claim, that Jirair Sefilian has connections with Moscow, thus, by that Moscow exerts pressure against Yerevan, so that in this tense situation it was easier to return the territories. What do you think of this? There are talks on Western track as well.
I don’t believe in that external track. I don’t consider that there is mediation in this from the side of Russia or the West. I think, this is an instinctive reflection, not so pondered, but realized and planned, and the authorities face the issue of attacking or not: under urban conditions it happens, and the population should put an end to this. The society and the opposition can’t but support Sefilian, that group, however, it’s not clear what the reflection will be, if blood is shed. The authorities pose this question to themselves and don’t find answer, by that this pause is explained.
Besides, during the first days the authorities were attempting to gain some dividends from the situation, today the situation has changed, all this will be an acquisition on the one hand, tragi comedic, and hazardous on the other.
In your opinion, under this fragile condition, how should the authorities act to correctly settle the situation?
It’s very difficult to give advice to the authorities, who allowed such developments throughout recent years, and in the situation in which meetings of Armenian and Russian delegations of armed forces to discuss issues of united system, is the continuation of the system of issues, which have been recorded throughout recent years.
Thus, the only thing to do, is to principally review the system of making decisions, which is impossible. However, linked to Sefilian the situation is complicated, however, we should be attentive and maintain law and not to allow bloodshed—the field of that decision is rather narrow. No matter how critical it may be towards Armenia’s authorities, claims of the authorities to free the people from responsibility, I consider an absurd, as crime was recorded, and they should bear responsibility for that.
In your opinion how does the Kremlin accept and asses these processes?
It’s rather difficult to answer that question. I don’t so understand essence and reason of Moscow pressures on retreating territories. I don’t so understand either what will gain Moscow, if it integrates Azerbaijan. I don’t consider it’s the benefit, for which one can so threaten this region, as it’s rather explosive, I don’t understand that logic. Thus, I think in the Kremlin they follow the developments with certain tension. In my conviction this was unexpected for Moscow, and this is a new situation in Yerevan, to which Moscow isn’t ready.
By Araks Martirosyan
