Turkish Government Junta not to be Positively Disposed towards Armenia: Turkish Analyst on Coup D’ etat and Regional Developments

Interview with Özgün Özçer, former correspondent of Taraf daily.

Özgün, what happened in Turkey? Which are the main reasons for the occurrence?

The occurrence was qualified as a failed attempt of military coup. Military officers in Istanbul stopped the traffic on all the bridges, few movements were observed in different parts of the city. In Ankara, where I live, 2-3 military helicopters were flying rather low targeting some parts of the city, including the Police department of the Parliament. While attacking the Parliament building shooting from the helicopter was recorded. The eyewitnesses claim that civilians have been killed as well.

Everything changed, when the night came: armed forces devoted to the Parliament returned Istanbul airport to the authorities, where Erdogan landed, who was on vacation. He called his opponents to go to the streets. In the morning armed forces were given a command to restore control over all important buildings. Chief of General Staff, who, according to the statements, was kidnapped, somehow survived. Mass arrests followed this—around 3000 military officers and 2700 judges. All the Parliament parties issued a united statement against this attempt of military invasion. Clarifying the real reason for all these will be rather complicated.

As many know, this country has a story of military coups. On the one hand, many were reversing to the claim by the Government, that this may be a coup qualifying it as an attempt of self-coup, which later may be beneficial to Erdogan, who through restrictions, following the coup, will maintain his authority. They also fact that coup circumstances show that Erdogan wasn’t the target. This, of course, will more deepen the existent polarization in the country, as the leading AKP supporters are so devoted, that thinking of a self-coup will be observed as betrayal.

Another question is existent as well: didn’t investigative services know on coup attempt? If yes, did they report it to the Government?

What may be anticipated in Turkey after these developments?

Erdogan will seek for ways to expand his authority, one point, to which he attempted to reach for a long time, was making the presidential system official. In the armed forces and judicial system mass arrests have been recorded, and those are being detained, who are pro-Gulen. This may spread on the whole judicial system. If early elections are held, then AKP has already confirmed expansion of its majority. They also have the possibility to appear as victims before the armed forces, which will be rather productive from the perspective of the image of the political party. Polarization will deepen between AKP supporters and those, who will consider this attempted coup.

After this, in your opinion, how will develop USA-Turkey relations, on the one hand, and Russia-Turkey relations on the other.

Recently Erdogan apologized from Russia, thus, those relations will enter a positive phase. Economy is the main vector or AKP authoritative clan, and relations with Russia are of crucial importance from the perspective of tourism and trade. Turkey’s economy is rather vulnerable, as it’s based on consumption. It refers a range of fields, like construction, agriculture, and in particular, tourism. I think relations with Russia will be settled, as the newly appointed PM even hinted on change of the policy towards Syria.

We’ll see what will happen in relations with the USA. I wonder, was the U.S. investigation aware of this attempt? U.S. air base in Incirlik was closed on July 16, naturally, there was a clear reason for it. However, presidential elections are ahead in the USA, and the developments will depend on the results of those elections.

Against the background of the existent situation, what should regional countries beware of and how should they act?

The deeper Turkey focuses on its internal issues, the worse relations with the neighboring countries will be, and settlement of relations with them won’t be included in Turkey’s agenda. Settlement of relations with Armenia or positive progress in this issue will again be postponed. Government Junta towards Armenia, in any case, won’t be positively positioned towards Armenia. As long as AKP is in the lead, they seemingly change their regional policy, making it more pragmatic. They’ll attempt to make use of the status of the Government victim. Connection of the Government with the Islamic State will be one of the most crucial issues. Regional countries should reduce pressure against Turkey to the minimum, to suspend Turkey’s liaison with the Islamic State, which they deny, although it’s clear for the many, that they have a key role in expansion and formation of the Islamic State. Many things will depend on what will include AKP’s settlement process with Israel and Russia.

By Araks Martirosyan