Azerbaijan will be Compelled to Implement Reached Agreements: Modest Kolerov

Interview with Modest Kolerov, Russian political analyst, first class advisor of Russian Federation, editor-in-chief of Russian Regnum agency.

Mr. Kolerov at the session of the Council of Defense Ministers of CSTO, Defense Minsters of Armenia and Russia Seyran Ohanyan and Sergey Shoygu while signing the agreement, stated on creation of a joint Russian and Armenian force grouping. What does this mean and by which aspect will it function?

This is sensational news of global and historical importance, which didn’t receive adequate reflection in Armenia. This means, that a united air force is being established in Armenia, which will provide external defense.

How is it related to Karabakh conflict?

It’s simply linked to conflict, as until this moment when united grouping is established, attacks of the Azerbaijani side even towards Armenia’s territories, e.g. in Noyemberyan, they remained without CSTO reflection and use of its potential, as it’s mechanism isn’t direct, and Armenia should, firstly, apply to CSTO, member countries will discuss and make a decision through consensus, then currently, although military cooperation of Armenia and Russia is already bilateral, establishment of this grouping will mean that aggression against Armenia’s territory will be direct aggression against Russia. If Armenia puts forward certain conditions or restrictions, for instance, grouping in Ijevan region won’t function, then simply from military perspective aggression against Armenia will automatically mean aggression towards Russia. This is the first one.

Secondly, I paid attention to the fact, that upon the results of Shoygu’s meeting in Baku, the shortest declaration read that opinions have been exchanged around regional security issues. In the context of relations between Russian and Azerbaijani Defense Ministries means cooperation and influence regarding regional security. If we translate this through the simplest language, this means how Russian and Azerbaijani military cooperation showed itself throughout the April war in Karabakh. Obviously assurances by Russia-Azerbaijan military cooperation supporters, that implementation of the agreement on supply of heavy armaments to Azerbaijan concluded in 2007, excludes overuse of those armaments by Azerbaijan, are far from the reality. However, we saw and know that in April Azerbaijan used heavy armaments, and who was suspicious, received a direct confirmation, and Putin earlier stated, that use of such armaments is not right. I think, that essence of talks of Shoygu and his counterparts in Baku was that common issue of regional security strengthening can’t be used for Karabakh war. Was he perceived in Baku or not? I think it’ll be the first impetus, that will be opposed to positions of Rogozin and Medvedev.

Mr. Kolerov how will establishment of such grouping be reflected on Armenia’s sovereignty? There is an opinion in Armenia, that it’s another blow to Armenia’s sovereignty.

A sovereign state may sign any agreement. I have a pragmatic view on it. If Armenia produced tanks, planes, jets, air defense systems for itself, probably in that field cooperation with Russia would be excessive. They don’t do it in Armenia, do they? Armenia is surrounded by enemies from the east and the west, from the south it borders with a hypocritical neighbor, and to the south with Iran, which will be led by interests of its own large state, and  as I not once was convinced, historical memory is actual in Tehran, according to which Yerevan’s Khanate was belonging to the Ottoman Empire, and Karabakh’s Khanate—to Iran. And those historical realities are not only in their head, but on lips as well. For this very reason, under this situation Armenia is doomed to seek for a big ally beyond the region, let it be France, the USA or Russia. Armenia has no choice, should it rely on its own capabilities or seek for an ally?

And if it relies on its own capabilities, it’ll be defeated, as many intend to check its strength. There are 9 million people from the East, 80 million from the West, 80 million from the South, and Armenia’s population comprises just 2.5 million.  I consider, this simple school combination obliges any sober person to seek for allies. If you claim for sovereignty, in its exclusive measurement, then you shouldn’t maintain relations with Los Angeles, look into the eyes of Glendale City Hall, visit France, rejoice with recognition of Karabakh through separate states or prefectures.

After the presidential meeting in Baku, RF Defense Minister Shoygu met his Azerbaijani counterpart, then left for Baku to meet Aliyev. At the same time, in some Russian media outlets talks were activated through different analysts on deploying Russian peacekeeping mission on Karabakh conflict zone. Do you observe any liaison here?

The issue of peacekeepers has been discussed long ago, it’s not news. Under current conditions, after statements by Rogozin and Medvedev, I think, that issue is no more actual. And Shoygu doesn’t and can’t discuss Karabakh conflict settlement issues.

In Moscow Serzh Sargsyan, applying to Vladimir Putin, stated, “It’s very important that reached agreements have been implemented,” in particular, on account of the agreements reached in Vienna and St. Petersburg. In your opinion, why are they forgotten and instead of installation of ceasefire violation investigative mechanisms, again peacekeeping mission is being touched upon?

There aren’t few stupid people in the world, if they again discuss the issue of peacekeepers. I repeat, it’s an issue discussed long ago, which has consumed itself. Decision on peacekeepers isn’t adopted by Russia. It’s adopted by OSCE MG Co-Chairs. For this very reason discussion is fraud and demagogy in itself

And then, Azerbaijan didn’t sign Vienna agreement, it was forced to join that agreement in St. Petersburg. Installation of investigative mechanisms, expansion of OSCE observers are ongoing issues and pass all the stages of agreement. Nobody has withdrawn anything. It’s not implemented in a second. And, for instance, regarding increase in the number of observers in Karabakh it’s a crucial issue how it’ll be implemented and from which side they’ll enter. This issue is in the agenda.

Next presidential meeting was initially planned in August, currently it is scheduled for September. What expectations should we have from those meetings?

It’s anticipated that Azerbaijan will be urged to implement the concluded agreements. It’s number one issue today.

And when will Karabakh join the negotiations again?

First of all, Azerbaijan should approve it. Currently the Co-Chairs are working in peace to that end.

By Gayane Khachatryan