“Deepening USA-Russia confrontation won’t be mirrored in NK conflict”
It’s been a week that the USA and Russia suspended cooperation around Syrian conflict. A few days ago U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stated that Washington may suspend cooperation with Moscow on Syrian issue, if Syrian troops and Russian aviation didn’t stop attacking Aleppo. As developments in Syria showed, Russia, together with Governmental troops of Syria, continued attacking to the direction of Aleppo, which led to cooperation suspension. This issue bothers the international expert community, as there are grounded doubts that Russia-USA confrontation will more deepen. “168 Hours” interviewed political analyst Alexey Malashenko, member of the Scientific Council of the Moscow Carnegie Center, Chairman of the Religion, Society and Security Program on these issues.
Mr. Malashenko suspension of Russia-USA cooperation in Syria deepened existent crisis in relations of the two—remote diplomatic “discourses” and mutual threats of the officials of the two countries continue. Where does this confrontation and radically varying postures in Syria lead the USA and Russia to?
Of course, the ongoing situation is of utmost importance and is full of threat. However, we should also realize that there are more than thousands of Islamist groups today in Syria, which are separated between supporters of Assad and the Islamic State. Under these conditions it was even initially clear that cooperation and negotiations can’t be developed in a way Russia and the USA are planning. However, I exclude clash and military scenarios between Russia and the USA. Moreover, I’m hopeful that cooperation will resume, as Syrian conflict and generally any variant of conflict settlement doesn’t have a variant without cooperation and at least negotiations. If cooperation doesn’t resume, then Syrian war will last forever. However, I think, there will be cooperation in all the stages of the crisis both in relations between the USA and Russia. Supposedly, it should also take place.
What exit do you observe from the existent situation in Syria?
Exit is always observed, but not today, as the Islamic State still doesn’t concede its positions. Under these conditions it’s impossible to speak of peace, even if negotiations will resume by international format. The exit is that the sides realized that it’s impossible to live this way anymore, its resource lacks and they didn’t go to clashes and new attacks.
Positions of Russia and the USA today are rather radical and uncompromising. Against this background opinions are being circulated that opposing to the USA in weakening Russia in Syria, the latter will attempt to exert pressure over the USA in other zones of conflict, in particular, Karabakh conflict. What do you think of this possibility?
This is an exaggerated approach on Russia’s policy. Contrasts of Russia and the USA will remain in Syria, as the sides themselves intend for it, being afraid of further sharpening of relations. Thus, other “places” of cooperation will be necessary. It’s not excluded that it was NK conflict settlement process, which was a likewise platform for the USA and Russia, following the Georgian war. Thus, this isn’t excluded. On account of unexpected April war, which was a rather undesirable scenario for Russia, in this issue mediators will adopt a rather cautious policy. There is another reason as well: Russia won’t do it, as it isn’t eager for war in the Caucasus.
Do you think that the USA and Russia will implement mediation mission in Karabakh?
Yes, I consider it possible, as firstly, there is no contrast between the mediators around Karabakh conflict, and secondly, there is necessity to weaken the tension in relations, which may occur during this conflict settlement.
Under these conditions what results may these efforts lead to?
I have much touched upon it. I don’t anticipate essential results, as the sides seem not to intend or don’t take steps to that direction. This cooperation of mediators may succeed in solving short-term issues. At the moment I can’t say what issues they are, as I’m not familiarized with present negotiation process.
By Araks Martirosyan
