Resumption of another Karabakh war is too realistic: M.Kolerov
From November 11 the Azerbaijani side has sharpened the situation on Karabakh-Azerbaijan contact line, shelling the military posts of the Defense Army in the north-eastern (Talish and Yarmja) directions of the frontline. 168.am interviewed Modest Kolerov, Russian political analyst, first class advisor of Russian Federation, editor-in-chief of Russian Regnum agency, on the new wave unleashed by Azerbaijan on the line of contact.
Mr. Kolerov, after the regional visit of OSCE MG co-chairs Azerbaijani provocations became frequent on Karabakh-Azerbaijan line of contact. Currently how probable do you consider resumption of wide-scale military operations?
The whole period, following the April war, as compared to many of my colleagues, I thought and now I share the opinion that resumption of military operations is rather realistic. It’s conditioned by the fact that Azerbaijani authorities consider themselves winners in the April war, although they have also forgotten that Azerbaijan was the side initiating suspension of military operations. Azerbaijan doesn’t want to implement the responsibilities, assumed in St.Peterburg.
In this condition which steps can the co-chairs initiate to eliminate the threat? The co-chairs function in their traditional rhythm, which seems not to satisfy the Azerbaijani side.
The co-chairs should be maximally demanding, as Azerbaijan’s current activities devaluate efforts by the co-chairs, make them senseless, moreover, they “slap” the USA, France and Russia. The only issue is the following—all these countries should equally perceive these steps by Azerbaijan.
You stated that Azerbaijan doesn’t want to perform its assumed liabilities. However, negotiations following the April war in Vienna, then in St Petersburg have been suspended pursuant some opinions, due to the reason, that besides what is known to the public, during those meetings settlement substantive issues have been covered as well, and again the sides didn’t come to an agreement, as a result of which the process appeared at a deadlock. In your opinion, why have negotiations been suspended?
I consider, we all know around which negotiations were being held, it’s been much touched upon. I believe, negotiations are at a deadlock, as Azerbaijan doesn’t want to implement its liabilities, i.e. agree on installation of investigative mechanisms, monitoring, expansion of observer’s mission and suspension of incidents in the contact line. At this stage, I consider, there were no other issues, it should be sought in other place.
These days Azerbaijani president made a noteworthy statement, not excluding Azerbaijan’s membership to EEU, which is observed by Armenian expert community as a proposal for a deal directed to Russia. These opinions are accompanied by combinations with “Lavrov plan” and allegations, that Azerbaijan offers that step for territories or Karabakh. How interested is Russia in this deal now?
I have repeatedly reflected to talks on “Lavrov plan” and not only me, but Russian Foreign Ministry as well. I will say the following about the statements by Aliyev: firstly, he misinforms everyone, who read or heard that interview, as membership to EEU can’t be without Armenia’s permit. Secondly, Russia’s position in this issue is equal to ones of all other EEU member countries, including Armenia. Thus, talks about the deal on membership to EEU for something aren’t proper at all.
By Araks Martirosyan
