The Trump administration will be paying less attention to Karabakh conflict settlement: Paul A.Goble

“Washington will be paying less attention to the South Caucasus at the highest level, than it was,” Paul A.Goble, special adviser to Secretary of State (1990s), prominent Analyst on Soviet Nationalities, presently Professor at the Institute of World Politics (IWP), told 168.am, reflecting to the priorities of the administration of the newly elected U.S. president Donald Trump.

It’s noteworthy to mention, Paul A.Goble has worked as the Director of Research and Publications at Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy (Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan) for many years.

To the question what should be anticipated from the Trump administration’s policy in the South Caucasus, and how proper it is to separate the U.S. political figures between Republicans and Democrats, when the U.S. foreign policy is meant, Goble replied that the most important point is that Washington will pay less attention to the South Caucasus, than it used to.

According to him, it’ll be the direction, managed by lower level officials, rather than senior ones.

“Consequently, there is likely to be less dramatic change, than many people expect. Over time, that may change, especially if there is a rearing of the geopolitics with Azerbaijan becoming more important to Russia as a bridge to Iran.

But I think the shorter answer is that Washington will be paying less attention to the South Caucasus at the highest level, than it was. I think we will probably see less effort made to push the negotiation process over the Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute. Those who are positive or negative towards what’s going to happen are going to prove on at least in the next 12 months,” former diplomat said. According to the latter, reasons are obvious.

Paul A.Goble thinks that the Trump administration is going to be vastly more focused on domestic affairs than in foreign policy.

“I also think that what we’ve seen so far suggests that Mr. Trump even more than Mr. Obama is someone, who believes that the world is so organized around various powers and that the U.S. should primarily deal with the major powers of the world rather than with the lesser powers. On account of this, I would expect the Trump administration to pay more attention to Moscow, than the Obama administration has, and less attention to Russia’s neighbors. That doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s going to be a big change, but it does mean that those, who expect the Trump administration to record dramatic changes in the foreign policy, are probably going to be proven wrong in the shorter term,” Goble said.

By Araks Martirosyan