Economic growth anticipated 0.5% for 2016: data from first 100 days report

Armenia’s GDP growth index for 2016 hasn’t been published yet, the National Statistical Service will publish them no sooner than in February.

Judging from GDP indices for the first quarter 2016 and Economic Activity Index (EAI) for January-November 2016 (0.6%) it isn’t difficult to suppose that GDP will be less than 1% for the year—much lower, than anticipated.

At today’s press conference with Armenian PM Karen Karapetyan the report devoted to the 100-day activity of of the Government was delivered to the reporters, where interesting indices may be found.

Thus, pursuant that report, index for 2016 is 0.5%. Moreover, it isn’t mentioned, that it’s anticipation. Thus, it may be supposed that the Government provided operative data, which haven’t been issued yet. And even if this is anticipation, then it’s the freshest anticipation and actual index will hardly divert from 0.5%.

Frankly speaking EAI has incomprehensible growth. For January-November 2016 it had a value of 100.4 (0.4% growth). And the provided 63% isn’t possible to explain in any way.

USD 522 million is anticipated for foreign direct investments towards USD 496 million for 2015. Thus, it turns out that foreign direct investments have grown, however, upon the data provided by the National Statistical Service, net inflows of direct investments in the period of January-September 2016 have reduced by 1/3. Of course, in one case we deal with general inflow of investments, and net inflow in the other, however, likewise diversion is rather strange.

Everything is very complicated in case of debt as well. Firstly, it’s stated above the charts that it refers to external state debt, and below—to gross external debt. These are different concepts.

It should also be stated that RA Ministry of Finance today issued state debt monthly report. As of late December 2016 Armenia’s external debt (that of the Government and CBA) comprise USD 4 billion 798.3 million, meanwhile, according to anticipations, it comprises USD 4 billion 847 million.