The only issue is when another Karabakh war will be resumes and in which from: Felgenhauer
“Parties to the NK conflict have intensively prepared for war in the last decade,” Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer told 168.am, reflecting to the tension escalated on Karabakh-Azerbaijan contact line and possibility of war resumption.
On February 25, as of 03:00 and 04:00, the Azerbaijani side conducted an attack attempt at two south-eastern (Martuni) and eastern (Akna) directions by using respective mine clearance equipment and special measures. Upon official information the Armenian side has no casualties and wounded.
Pavel Felgenhauer said we don’t deal with a new phenomenon on Karabakh conflict zone. In his words such local attacks, sabotage infiltration attempts have always been recorded, and the sides are more than ready for that. Moreover, the analyst considers the sides are not only ready to resist these minor military initiatives, but for wide-scale operations, as the sides have been intensively armed in the period of the last decade, and they continue observing the possibility of war resumption as a realistic scenario. He believes on account of tendencies of military science means one things—war is inevitable.
“In fact, today the sides are not only getting armed, but they don’t negotiate, anticipate unrealistic concession, use the conflict from time to time to solve some other issues, which the sides clearly realize, what is means, i.e. political component of the conflict lacks, which could save the situation from destructive implications, at the same time, strengthening the military component. This is a rather sad situation, however the reality is this: the sides have prepared for war consciously.
Here only the issue is when those wide-scale operations will be launched and in which form, they may even start as a result of sudden mistake, provocation, i.e. chaotically, as permanent shootings, constant move of military equipment very often may be wrongly perceived and more unequal response may be given, as it was necessary at that very moment. The scenario of four-day tension or its worst option may resume, however, I should also insist that the sides should be ready for that, as wars don’t take place at once,” Felgenhauer said.
He considers situation in the world doesn’t contribute to ceasefire maintenance and launch of political process either: instability in Donbass, Syria, uncertain future of Trump-Putin relations, business of Russia and the USA in these issues.
“Currently for any superpower, including Russia, which strives to maintain its zones of influence in the region, situation on NK conflict zone isn’t a priority. The experience shows that mediators return to the situation, when there is an alarm, and when the situation enters a more dangerous phase,” the military analyst said, adding that implications of wide-scale operations may be destructive for the region, as the parties to the conflict possess serious armaments.
By Araks Martiros
