Azerbaijan’s next attack will be in other direction: they attempted to deceive the Armenian side: Richard Giragosian
Richard Giragosian, Founding Director of the Regional Studies Center (RSC), political scientist, told reporters today that after the April developments the Armenian side didn’t attempt to fully involve in the conflict,
“Decision was made that “Iskanders” shouldn’t be used during these military operations. However, what happened next, if we look to Azerbaijan: Armenia didn’t reply, and we may say, that the April war in the recent decades was Azerbaijan’s first serious success. This operation was succeeded for Azerbaijan, as military potential of that country this time had clear and proper purposes. Prior to April they were simply attacking for recording it, and in April they had the purpose to take some territories.”
Touching upon recent developments on the contact line, he stated that it was already a test, “They were testing us, they were simply preparing for another attack. This also coincided with the developments on Khojalu and Mehriban Aliyeva’s appointment as the VP.”
According to the political scientist, militarily April was the most appropriate time for a large-scale attack, “ First, weather conditions are good, besides new armaments are expected from Israel and Russia. Another attack is probable to be recorded not before elections in Armenia, but after them. If it’s recorded before elections, it’ll be a big gift to RPA, and if after, it’ll be the first test for the newly elected parliament. The most important is that Azerbaijan’s next attack won’t be against Karabakh, i.e. there will be a variety in this field: attack will be recorded not against Karabakh, but in other direction.”
Upon his assessment, both in April and this time purpose of Azerbaijan from military perspective will be taking territories, “Of territories, which are beyond borders of Karabakh. Armenia and Artsakh have no partners from peace perspective.”
R.Giragosian stressed that Azerbaijan doesn’t think of human losses from its side, “From military perspective military operations by the Azerbaijani side were conditioned by the fact that they simply intended to test how well armed the Armenian side is and what has changed after the April developments. From this perspective, this was a failure. Of course, they paid a high price for this. However, the second factor was more successful: they attempted to use the trick of military illusion, as in fact, they were attempting to conceal their chief goal, as I said, the attack won’t be against Karabakh, but to the south and north. On the other hand, they intended to deceive that defending side, that another successful attack will be recorded in the same direction.”
Touching upon positions and activities of global actors in this context he stated that from geopolitical perspective a vacuum situation has emerged, “The bad point for Artsakh and Armenia isn’t the fact that they’re leaving the territory, but what influence withdrawal of US forces from the region will have. It’s a threat for Armenia and Artsakh that only one power monopolizes its position in the whole region. The only policy for us to exist is complementary, balanced policy. President Serzh Sargsyan’s recent visit to Brussels, Europe and negotiations with NATO were crucial: they had a rather important role from the perspective of keeping balance. The more steps we undertake to the West, the more respect we may anticipate from Russia.”
By Razmik Martirosyan
