“Threat of NK conflict settlement through force has been eliminated”

Interview with Stanislav Tarasov, Russian political scientist, columnist.

Mr. Tarasov, recently Armenian authorities made a rather noteworthy statement regarding the policy pursued by Azerbaijan in the line of contact, first, Armenian Defense Minister Vigen Sargsyan announced on the possibility of using “Iskanders” against Azerbaijan. At the meeting with Armenian diplomatic corps president Sargsyan said, “If Azerbaijan proceeds with the same spirit and leads the situation to war, we won’t stop even for a second to use all our possibilities in our arsenal to provide security of the people of Artsakh.” In his turn, Armenian FM Edward Nalbandian said one of the countries will recognize Artsakh’s independence by the end of the year.

Here I wouldn’t even focus on Armenia’s rhetoric, as by the end of the previous year Azerbaijani president Mr. Aliyev said during the Cabinet meeting that pressure is exerted against Azerbaijan toward recognition of Karabakh’s independence, that there are diplomatic rules and they can’t publicize them. Of course, he didn’t point at the state, which exerts pressure. Besides, he stated that he won’t allow development of two Armenian states in the region. Aliyev should publicly point at one state, besides Uruguay, which stated on importance of Artsakh’s recognition.

Excuse me, but Mr. Aliyev himself exerted efforts to move forward the trend of Artsakh’s independence. Currently Nalbandian fixes that position by touching upon its possibility. You know, that during the April war Armenian government submitted a draft on Artsakh’s recognition, then gave it to the parliament, but it remained there. At that time it was observed as a means of pressure against Azerbaijan to suspend military operations, shifting to negotiations.

Then under the pressure of Americans Azerbaijanis involved in negotiations in Vienna, then continued it in St. Petersburg, the agreements have been adopted, and currently it turns out that Azerbaijan hasn’t signed under them, basically, failed the planned presidential meeting in Moscow again with Putin’s mediation, negotiations appeared at a deadlock, they’re disrupted.

The statement by Nalbandian should be observed, first and foremost, as continuation of trend toward independence, let me repeat that it was outspoken by Aliyev, and secondly, this is a means of pressure to resume negotiations. In fact, according to all diplomatic rules, Azerbaijan loses Karabakh set.

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These statements are tended to restraint, but will they restrain Azerbaijan, when the latter continuously sharpens the situation on the contact line, organizes attacks in several directions?

Bothering fights are taking place, and they will be recorded in the future. However, NK conflict settlement through force has been eliminated. Azerbaijan won’t dare to go to war alone, it’s definite. If in the period of last April Turkey was expressing solidarity to Azerbaijan, currently it fights for its territorial integrity, if Azerbaijan has NK conflict, then Turkey is overloaded with Kurdish issues now, and the USA develops a bill on creating a Kurdish state in the Middle East. You see, diplomacy was defeated. Incumbent Azerbaijani authorities or the part, which isn’t able to seek resources to come to negotiations with Armenians in Karabakh, will once be sentenced not only by the International Court, but by a historical court, they have provided this future for them.

Why do you exclude the possibility of war resumption, when attacks are launched in the line of contact, which may even turn into large-scale operations as a result of a mistake?

I exclude this, as there aren’t interested external players. Neither Iran, nor Turkey, nor the USA, Russia completely doesn’t need any war, Europe itself is sinking.

Obviously, after failure of Putin’s plan to organize a presidential meeting, Russia had other plans as well: ministerial meetings, and etc., which also failed as Azerbaijan doesn’t agree to adopt Vienna and St. Petersburg agreements, at the same time, official Moscow insists, there is no alternative to MG, seemingly attempting not to go beyond this format at this stage. What’s Russia’s current posture?

Moscow once again proved that military operations against Karabakh are unacceptable. There is no need thinking over something different, there are documents, they aren’t many, but they are developed by OSCE MG, there are presidential statements, Aliyev and Sargsyan have more than 10 summits. Azerbaijan doesn’t accept, but he participates in formation of Vienna and St. Petersburg documents, supposing installation of monitoring system and international observers, expansion of liabilities of OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, and all this will allow speaking of who initiates the war, after which the sides will have the opportunity to come to wider negotiations based on Madrid Principles, which besides return of territories and other issues, observes intermediary status for Karabakh and referendum.

There is a rule in politics: if you agreed to play football, you should play football, and in the first half Azerbaijan plays football, and in the second—basketball, this doesn’t conform in any legality.

However, the Azerbaijani side succeeds to mislead and fail the process, as mediators don’t have the mandate of influence, leverages for pressure, they don’t implement such underground function either.

Why? Mediators exert pressure. Azerbaijan’s current reflection is conditioned by the circumstance, that the Co-Chairs set forward conditions—implementation of agreements reached in Vienna and St. Petersburg. These aren’t being implemented, as Azerbaijan has big fears that OSCE will accuse it in ceasefire violation, you know what’ll come next? Sanctions will be imposed, Azerbaijani will be announced as aggressor, international sanctions will be imposed, OSCE MG may adopt a resolution against the UN Security Council aggressor. By this scenario MG threatens Azerbaijan now, attempting to lead the sides to the circle of legally binding liabilities. What is taking place now? Everybody speaks of recognition of the Republic of Artsakh, isn’t it clear, that it’s a positive sign for Stepanakert?

By Araks Martirosyan