There are a few groundings for that—offshore scandal [Panama offshore scandal], domestic policy, reduction of external reserves linked to fall in price for oil, social issues.
“Any victory can’t be conditioned by the factor of armaments only, human factor is existent as well. Which they completely lack. They lack specialists, they aren’t able to productively handle armaments.”
“If we observe the situation in the South Caucasus, we’ll understand, that Azerbaijan owes Russia 5 times much money, than Armenia, by that very accord.”
“In this case my opinion is, that this conflict should be solved only peacefully. This conflict should not be settled militarily, it should be settled around a negotiating table. There is no other way.”
Given the massive arsenals of weaponry both sides now possess, new fighting could easily escalate into an all-out conflict far more destructive than the 1991-94 war. Baku and Yerevan could invoke their military assistance treaties with Turkey and Russia respectively. Neither wants to get involved, but would be under big pressure to honor their commitments in the region.
The April war brought sharp change of game rules, created totally new situation, where there is no any factor or mechanism for deterrence. The legend, that the international community won’t allow resumption of conflict, has vanished.
The United States, Europe, and their partners must officially recognize the Mountainous Karabagh Republic within its constitutional frontiers.
“Rather serious rearrangements in all aspects will occur here, Armenia should review its relations with Russia. Activities by OSCE MG should also be reviewed to some extent.”
The issue should be divided into two parts: if the moment comes and political processes are beneficial for its recognition, at least, we should have that sense, that extension of international recognition element will follow it, and that it doesn’t start and end in Armenia.
The movie, 1915, takes place in the present as a theater director attempts to stage a play about the genocide, and the actors begin feeling a visceral, realistic connection to those who died a century earlier.
