Two friends not including Armenia

A debate between the Armenian second president Robert Kocharyan and the incumbent Prime-Minister Tigran Sargsyan has become one of the most discussed topics in Armenia, even to the extent of becoming a debate between Kocharyan and the government. This debate will continue for a long time if it is not stopped by any unexpected circumstance. There are dozens of opinions about the conflict between the incumbent and previous presidents of Armenia, which generally are of two types. According to the first scenario, this is a planned game with participation of the second and incumbent presidents, which also takes into consideration the domestic and foreign policy issues. According to the second opinion, this is a conflict for power. Whatever it is, the fact is that this is a conflict of interests in an environment where there is no opposition in the political sector. Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan have succeeded in the creation of a political order in Armenia, in which opposition powers or those that are considered opposition are divided into two groups, one of which is under the influence of the incumbent president, and the other one – under the influence of the previous president. This is a result of not only the consistent efforts and policy of Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan, but also the fact that not only the government but also the opposition is under the influence of Russia. It is this influence but not internal politics that makes the opposition act adjacent to either of these two poles. This means that as a result of this conflict of interests, whatever it is, the one to benefit will be the same power that Robert Kocharyan received in 1998 and Serzh Sargsyan inherited in 2008 due to Robert Kocharyan’s active participation. This means that whatever the outcome of this process is, Armenia will continue being governed by the same political elite, due to which it has become Russia’s remote region, and now these people are in rival for getting the power of that remote region. The people of Armenia have nothing to do with this conflict because they could be connected to this issue only in case of having opposition in their country that would be led by their interests. However, the opposition powers have understood that in order to get the power, they have to protect the interests of not the Armenian people but the Russian political elite. Now even people from the government are discussing the potential dangers of riots because the social situation in the country is extremely bad. In other words, the critical social condition in Armenia may bring to a revolution. To prevent this, maybe the authorities are considering a scenario of changing the government, which eventually will change persons in the government and will re-allocate the capital proportions among the same groups. Their most important goal is the final victory over the people of Armenia, and for the sake of this goal they are ready to make a war, “work together” or do anything else.