“Russia will Try to Reach its Desire of Deploying “Peacekeepers” through Unilateral Mediation”

Armen Grigoryan, “Jamestown Foundation” columnist, political analyst, is the interviewee of 168.am.

–Mr. Grigoryan, unprecedented military escalation on Karabakh conflict zone has been continued for 3 days. At the National Security Council meeting held yesterday, Serzh Sargsyan touched upon signing a treaty of military cooperation with Artsakh. Why is this implemented and how hazardous is this?

–Probably this is a statement to re-establish responsibility for NK security, which should be accompanied by diplomatic work, again to engage NKR in negotiations.

–Which scenario of situation development you consider to be realistic? Among one of the most discussed these days is assuming leadership of situation by Russia, on account of the fact that Aliyev-Sargsyan meeting didn’t happen in the USA, and today Russia’s officials have passed on to complete separatist activities, vivid proof of which is visit of Sergey Shoygu, RF MOD, to Baku. Is it possible that Russia totally initiates open activities, independent from the Minsk Group?

–I consider, Russia will really try to implement unilateral mediation, trying to reach its desire of deploying “peacekeepers.” Shoygu’s visit to Baku and Medvedev’s upcoming visit to Yerevan may be used for that very purpose, and I also think that a bit later, S.Sargsyan and I.Aliyev will be invited to Russia.

 –How realistic is the issue of deploying peacekeepers nowadays?

–On account of the fact, that in case of deploying of “peacekeepers,” I consider quite realistic big potential of regional situation change in favor of Russia. And how realistic readiness of scenario overthrowing by Armenia and Azerbaijan is, time will show.

–We see, that Western structures and officials continue their former strategy, as compared to the Russian side. Doesn’t this mean that Russian side will face obstacles?

– If it turns out that Russia’s unilateral policy is beneficial, policy may change. Regarding short-term planning and implementation Russia, however, has an advantage: there is a possibility to make one-person decision and directing material and other resources for its implementation under dictatorship, meanwhile head of any Western state or structure isn’t able to do the same, without consulting to that country’s parliament or allies.

By Araks Martirosyan