I’m not sure that Yerevan has a military-political monopoly to use “Iskander”- they may be used for Moscow in the Turkish direction: Dubnov
The noise around the demonstrated new types of armaments during the parade on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of Independence of the Republic of Armenia wouldn’t stop. Russian analysts qualify supply of “Iskander” ballistic missile system, “Smerch” reactive multi-launch rocket system, “Buk” missile system and “Infauna” electronic warfare system as an attempt to restore the violated military balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan. According to some analysts supply of those types of armaments will have a restraining influence. Russian analyst, political scientist Vadim Dubnov also shared his views on purposes of this supply.
Purpose of demonstrated new types of armaments on the 25th anniversary of RA Independence is being actively discussed in Armenia. In your opinion, why did Russia finally provide such armaments to Armenia, which was being touched upon throughout recent years?
I consider this supply has more psychological, propagandistic importance, rather than military or, moreover, military-political, as first and foremost, as I understand, this has changed power balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan a little, as formerly Armenia also had such types of armaments, missile systems, which could have easily targeted important Azerbaijani centers, and could have targeted Baku.
Secondly, it’s not clear, that there should be something, which wasn’t recorded until this moment, i.e. a real war should start, so that these armaments were applied. If real war is launched, in which use of such types of armaments will be considered natural, I think we’ll forget about this parade and it’ll stop bothering us, everything will be much more serious.
Thirdly, I consider that not everything is so simple and easy regarding supply of “Iskander.” I’m not sure that Yerevan has military-political monopoly to use these missile systems. I’m very suspicious about Moscow’s definite supply, not systemizing this step with Baku, as relations with Baku are important for Moscow.
A piece of information, hypothesis was published in one of Eurasian papers that by this Moscow has formally sent those missile systems to Yerevan for that very purpose. Moscow not only supports Armenia within CSTO, but also Yerevan supports Moscow, the latter will have the right to rely on it, and if necessary it may be used in the direction of Turkey, for which they have been supplied to Yerevan.
I consider this is rather probable. Its addressee is not only Turkey, but Azerbaijan as well. Thus, I consider, this is a rather crucial propagandistic step, as Iskanders have been obviously supplied not today or a month ago, but even prior to April, and it has no importance from military-political perspective.
Do you consider that “Iskander” will solve Russian issues in Armenia if necessary, and not Armenian ones?
I think, first and foremost, Russia was led by its own interests. Very possibly here the target was not only Azerbaijan, as Armenia’s adversary, but Turkey, as Russia’s potential adversary.
In your opinion can’t this even be a message for Azerbaijan?
It’s a public message to Azerbaijan, and they were enough. Baku’s serene refection explains importance of this message.
Is that possible that by this supply Russia also intends to sell such systems to Azerbaijan out of the allegation of restoring balance again?
I consider, that parity was generally maintained in the second half of the 20th century, when the sides were coming from the most extreme scenarios, in which they didn’t believe, however, they were to take them into consideration out of the genre. Presently there is something like it. Of course, military figures are obliged to calculate all possible scenarios, however, I consider, Azerbaijan will initiate symmetric steps, however, I should also state that in that issue Moscow’s purpose of supply will be taken into consideration.
On account of your allegation, that purpose of the supply is firstly Russian interests, how will this be reflected on regional security?
I think, military-political leadership, all countries in the region realize that price for these developments and the idea that we touch upon. Thus, on account of this, I might say that their existence in Yerevan won’t be reflected on security environment in the region in any way.
By Araks Martirosyan
