How will JIT report have an effect on Armenia?
“Armenia and the European Union are approaching to the red line, however, they don’t surpass it,” Linas Kojala, representative of Policy Analysis and Research Department of Eastern Europe Studies Centre (Vilnius), authoritative European analyst, told 168.am.
Yesterday at a press conference joint investigation team (JIT) in the Dutch town of Nieuwegein said the missile had been fired from a village under the control of pro-Russia rebels. Its investigators said there was “irrefutable evidence” that a Buk 9M38 missile downed the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777, killing all 298 people on board 17 July 2014. Chief Dutch prosecutor Fred Westebeke told about this. He stated that some information at their disposal isn’t subject to publication yet. Buk system was brought to Ukraine from Russia and returned to Russia the following day.
Reflecting to this decision issued by JIT, Linas Kojala said what happened with Boeing, was clear a few hours later, when Washington, grounding on its reconnaissance data, issued almost the same conclusion as JIT, and when official Moscow passed on to its justifications, appearing in the role of defending itself. According to him, it was important that the whole scheme of downing the plane, succession of activities was uncovered, which doesn’t reveal this conclusion, as opinions were being circulated that today views are also available, that Russia planned a wider-scale provocation, which ended only by downing the Boeing.
Thus, the European analyst believes that yet they need to wait for other information and versions, which will be revealed after investigative operations. According to Kojala, this will provide the West the opportunity to more clearly shape intentions of Russian authorities.
“Western public becomes more convinced, that under Russia’s current leadership uncompromising posture should be adhered. In case of publication of more credible versions, undoubtedly, new sanctions will be defined towards Russia, as it basically was an attempt of war instigation, which can’t but receive worthy reply from the USA and Europe. However, much more convincing facts should be available, and in the initial conclusion they lack.
Although Peskov justifies, he’s right, when he insists, that irrefutable facts are necessary, which, I’m sure JIT has,” Kojala said. According to the latter, on account of Russia’s posture after the Boeing disaster, it’s less probable that Russia will attempt to “punish” the West for possible tough posture towards it.
“Nevertheless, while initiating steps, the West will already take into consideration the possibility of Moscow’s tough posture, which may be reflected in Ukraine and Syria. They should be ready for that, however, I consider that scenario less probable, as after the facts are uncovered Moscow will no more be able to deny its direct implication to the disaster,” Kojala said.
He negatively replied to the question whether this may be reflected on negotiations around the new legal ground of Armenia-EU cooperation, on account of Moscow’s factor in it. In his words, those negotiations basically are already conditioned by Armenia’s membership to the EU. “While negotiating in the fields contradicting to Russia and EEU—economy, trade, security, military cooperation, Armenia and the EU don’t reflect to the cooperation, i.e. they don’t surpass the red line, by rather approaching to it,” Kojala said, assuring that uncovering around Boeing won’t be reflected on Moscow’s posture regarding Armenia-EU relations.
By Araks Martirosyan
