Growth rate is maintained: Economy snapshot for January-February 2017
Based on result of the first two months of ongoing year economic activity index (EAI) comprised 6.2% (compared with January-February of the previous year). On monthly basis February 2017 compared with February 2017 economic activity grew by 6%.
The information was provided in the report on initial macroeconomic indices issued by the National Statistical Service of Armenia.
It’s true, growth rate was higher in January—6.4%, however, 6.2% index isn’t a bad one either. Especially, if we take into account that we had rather high growth rate in the first months of the previous year (i.e. basis for comparison was high).
EAI was recorded mainly on account of two branches—industry and services. In particular, volume of industrial production in January-February 2017 compared with the same period of the previous year has grown by 16.1% and comprised AMD 228.4 billion (in January growth rate comprised 12.2%). The field of services also recorded a double-digit growth—11.1% (volume—AMD 194.1 billion).
As stated these are initial, quickly accumulated data, in which detailed information isn’t provided on account of what the fields of industry and services have recorded growth. However, it should be noted that upon indices of January 12.2% growth of industry was recorded on account of 19.4% processing industry, and mining had decline of 2.8%.
As for the field of services, in January the field recorded growth by 12.5%. Here growth was diversified: services included in the article “culture, entertainment and recreation” have grown by 14.2%, volume of accommodation and catering has grown by 25.5%, transport services—24.3%, information and communication—8.8%, financial insurance and security—11.1%.
These details for February will be known in about 10 days.
The snapshot in other fields is as follows: agriculture has recorded growth near zero (0.1%) and provided production amounting AMD 40.4 billion in January-February. And condition of the field of construction remains upsetting—13.8% decline has been recorded (in January-February construction amounting AMD 17.1 billion has been implemented in Armenia).
Volume of internal trade turnover in January-February 2017 comprised AMD 292.2 billion, which exceeds index for the same period of the previous year by 9.6%.
Rates of external trade turnover are also impressive. In January-February 2017 volume of Armenia’s trade turnover compared with the same period of the previous year has grown by 22.2% and comprised USD 761 million.
From which: export has grown by 20.1% and comprised USD 273.7 million, and import has grown by 23.5% and reached USD 487.3 million.
It should be noted that indices for foreign trade in January were more impressive. Rate of total trade turnover comprised 38.5%, from which: rate of export growth was 35.4%, and import growth—40.3%. Growth rate has reduced based on results of January-February, however, on the other hand, difference of import and export growth rate has decreased.
Based on data issued by the National Statistical Service of Armenia it continued in February as well. Thus, consumption prices in February 2017 dropped by 0.2% compared with February of the previous year (12-month basis), and 0.9% drop in price has been recorded compared with January of ongoing year. Average prices for consumption prices in January-February are low by 0.4% from the same index of the previous year.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, salaries have recorded growth. Thus, average monthly nominal salary in February 2017 amounted AMD 182525, which is higher by 0.6% from the previous year’s index.
It’s also noteworthy that salaries in private sector have grown by 2.6% on a 12-month basis and comprised AMD 217888, and in public sector—dropped by 3%, thus amounting AMD 154656.
This means that purchasing capacity of the private sector employees on a 12-month basis has grown, and that of public sector—reduced, as salaries have decreased more on interests, than consumption prices.
It isn’t easy drawing further conclusions and anticipations based on first 2 months. It should be only stated that for this year 3.2% economic growth is anticipated by the state budget. And if temps are maintained, it isn’t excluded that by the end of the year the index will be higher than anticipated.
By Babken Tunyan
