“Serzh Sargsyan succeeded to eliminate talks on return of territories from the agenda through various means”
Interview with Denis Dvornikov, member of Russian Association of International Law, PhD in Legal Sciences.
Mr. Dvornikov, OSCE MG Co-Chairs appeared with addressed statement accusing Azerbaijan of shelling Armenian positions, striking military equipment. However the statement seemed not to have a restraining importance for Baku. In your opinion, how will the realities develop on the border? Is new escalation possible?
Unfortunately, escalation is possible at any moment. The point is that inside Azerbaijani elite sharp struggle is ongoing for existence under current serious economic crisis. Many realize Azerbaijan needs no Karabakh. For the reason that the territory has never been organically connected to the nations, living in the Republic of Azerbaijan. However, war is a rather productive tool to divert population’s attention from real issues.
Imagine anyone from Aliyev’s environment intends to dethrone him or establish political crisis. That’s why it’s enough to involve the country in new conflict, in which probability of painful defeat is big. This—for considerations. In fact, everything may be more complicated, more cynical and dangerous. It goes without saying that OSCE MG Co-Chairs, in particular, Russia, should have a very serious impact on Baku, show that in case provocations proceed serious diplomatic response will be recorded. No one needs war.
Can UN Security Council recognize Azerbaijan an aggressor under current state of affairs, as it disrupts peaceful settlement negotiations. Can it lead to recognition of NK independence?
I consider these are two different processes—recognition of Azerbaijan as aggressor and Artsakh’s independence. Firstly, everything depends on Armenia’s Foreign Ministry. One shouldn’t wait that UNO or any of the states will recognize anything. Action should be taken, trustworthy information should be gathered, acquire undeniable proof. Work should be carried out with expert circles and not spend hundreds of thousands dollars on taking Russian figures with Armenian surnames to Stepanakert, that they then were afraid to publicly state that they have visited an unrecognized state. I heard of similar silly and senseless projects.
I didn’t notice serious and systemic work. There are separate young enthusiasts, like, e.g. Artsakhi Ombudsman Ruben Melikyan or MP Naira Karapetyan, however, they are mostly exceptions. Other institutes work by clichés, not enough motivated, cautiously and with reservations. That way it’s impossible to reach any result.
President Sargsyan stated at the first Cabinet session that Kazan document is on NK conflict negotiation table. How would you comment and can it be anticipated that in future more speedy developments toward the issue settlement will be recorded?
I don’t think that in near future some radical changes should be anticipated in negotiations. Artsakh is in the center of geographical center of interest of leading powers. Most depends on the situation in Syria regarding what development and processes will be launched in Iran after elections, what scenarios of regime change will appear toward Azerbaijan and etc. The most important is that Serzh Sargsyan succeeded to eliminate talks on return of territories from the agenda.
However, after the trilateral meeting in Russia Azerbaijani FM Elmar Mammadyarov appeared with a statement moving forward the option “territories for peace.” What do you think of this and to which extent is that possible?
Peace will become possible, when all textbooks of Azerbaijani schools will be reviewed, when media outlets and educational system will stop propagating open ethnic hatred. Prior to this moment talks on “peace”, which Baku attempts to guarantee, aren’t serious. The Azerbaijani society, unfortunately, is ingrained and full of hatred. Something should be done with it. Moreover, it seriously inhibits Azerbaijan’s development.
Russia plans supply of new equipment to two CSTO member countries, including Armenia. How will it change state of affairs and power balance in the region?
It should be anticipated that before those armaments are provided, follow what I sold to whom, who will be the final consumer of that production, what variety will be provided and etc.
Some experts consider that in this situation in response to the policy adopted by Azerbaijan the only productive means is military, as holding negotiations with the aggressor is senseless. What’s your attitude to these views?
International law allows using not only response, but also preventive measures to protect civil society. Sometimes the adversary pushes to give a tough reply. Security of women, children and elderly people is the priority of any army.
Turkey and Russia are improving relations. What impact will this have on the region?
Friendship between Russia and Turkey is a myth. Or it’s a badly staged theater. Yesterday Turkey caused issues for suppliers of Russian wheat. And it’s a strategic field for Russia. No matter how much they’ll attempt to blur discussions on hitting Russian pilot, in any case that fact caused a greasy borderline between relations of our countries. In any case, for Russia at best, Turkey is a temporary situational country, rapprochement with which is dangerous.
By Gayane Khachatryan
