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Armed conflict expert: Tasks of the osce Minsk Group co-chairs in Karabakh

(international reputation of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs as a resource for promoting the strategic dialogue between the Russian Federation and the United States)

THE RESOURCE OF THE RUSSIAN-US STRATEGIC STABILITY DIALOGUE IS IN THE ONGOING CONSENSUS AMONG THE OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS ON THE KARABAKH SETTLEMENT

1. The report focuses on the source-based justification of assessments and recommendations based on: facts of war crimes, international legal norms and international practice of their implementation in peace-building.

The monitoring of the dynamics of regional security after the departure of Donald Trump’s populist administration and the official inauguration of Joe Biden – US President, professional institutionalist policymaker, indicates the urgency of the strategic dialogue with the Russian Federation after they confirm the status of Russia as an opponent of America.[1] It is important to note that in these international security realities, US think-tanks point out that “unlike the previous Republican administration, the current democratic one seriously intends to interact more with Moscow on the issues of strategic stability”.[2]

In this regard, analysts at the Carnegie Center, reflecting the opinion of the democratic establishment, emphasize the importance of using multilateral platforms to establish US-Russian dialogue on strategic stability.[3] Among these platforms, the platform of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs on the Karabakh settlement – before Turkey and Azerbaijan unleashed military-terrorist aggression in Karabakh – stood out by the continuous consensus between the Russian Federation, the United States and France. [4]

The consensus among the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs was as well confirmed by a joint Statement of the presidents of the Co-Chair countries – Russia, the US and France to end the war unleashed in autumn of 2020 against the Armenian population of Artsakh and Armenia by the Azerbaijani-Turkish coalition with the involvement of jihadists.[5] The three-time declaration of a truce under the auspices of the authorities of the Russian Federation, the United States and France is evidence of the further maintenance of consensus between Russia, America and France at the final stage of hostilities.[6]

The consensus on the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs platform continued with the support of official Washington and Paris to deploy Russian peacekeeping forces in Karabakh and the willingness to continue the work of the OSCE Minsk Group on Karabakh settlement. The plenipotentiary representatives of all three states have recently spoken about the expediency of using the Karabakh platform to promote, along with the Karabakh settlement, the dialogue on strategic stability on a global scale.[7]

THE MISSION OF THE OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS IN THE RESOLUTION OF TERRORIST AGGRESSION PROBLEMS IN KARABAKH IS TO RETURN TO THE PREVIOUSLY REACHED AGREEMENTS BETWEEN RUSSIA, USA AND FRANCE

It is reasonable for the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs to confirm by consensus the identification of Azerbaijan and Turkey as aggressors having violated the principle of non-use of force in the Karabakh settlement, agreed with the parties to the conflict under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs – Russian Federation, the United States and France. Based on this, the Minsk Group Co-Chairs, following the logic of implementing their mission within the context of international legal norms of peace-building, should avoid encouraging the aggressors having received advantages as a result of initiating a genocidal-terrorist war.[8] With regard to this, it is logical for Russia, the United States and France to apply sanctions against the initiators of the Azerbaijani-Turkish military aggression and provide guarantees excluding violation of the truce in the future with the threat of provoking a new military region-scale catastrophe.

IT IS ADVISABLE FOR THE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS REPRESENTED BY RUSSIA, USA AND FRANCE TO AGREE ON MEASURES TO OVERCOME THE AFTEREFFECTS OF THE WAR CRIMES COMMITTED BY AGGRESSOR-TERRORISTS IN KARABAKH – TO THAT END IT IS NECESSARY TO:[9]

1. Agree on the inclusion of all the three OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs represented by Russia, the United States and France in the Truce Monitoring Center in Karabakh, supported by the peacekeeping forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation;[10]

2. Exclude the application of Turkish Bayraktar-type UAVs used in the course of the Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression as the main weapon of the genocidal destruction of the Armenian population in Karabakh in the activities of the Truce Monitoring Center.

In accordance with the agreements reached under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group in Vienna and St. Petersburg for effective monitoring of the ceasefire in Karabakh, agree with the Co-Chairs – Russia, the US and FR – on the use of space-based means of orbital probing in the Karabakh conflict zone;[11]

3. Jointly with the parties to the armed conflict, start consultations on the development of a plan and schedule for the withdrawal of troops to the positions agreed at the first stage of the Kazan format for the transfer of 5 districts from the so-called security zone of the NKR;[12]

4. Take under control of the Peacekeeping Forces Center of the RF Armed Forces the ceasefire regime of the NKR entire territory without the 5 districts left under the control of the Azerbaijani side, provided for by the first stage of the settlement in accordance with the Kazan working document.[13]

II.

ENSURING CONTROL OVER THE PROTECTION OF HUMAN RIGHTS, INCLUDING THE NORMS OF INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN LAW BY THE OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS, TO THAT END IT IS NECESSARY TO:

1) In cooperation with the International Committee of the Red Cross and the ombudsmen of the parties to the conflict, in accordance with the requirements of international humanitarian law, achieve the immediate return of prisoners of war on the principle of all for all;[14]

2) Under the auspices of the OSCE Co-Chairs, ensure control over guaranteed protection of historical and cultural and spiritual values of the Armenian people of Karabakh in strict accordance with international legal norms of the Hague Convention and standard international practice, its implementation following the genocidal military aggression in Karabakh.[15]

III

UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS, ENSURING THE CREATION OF PREREQUISITES FOR LEGITIMATE CLARIFICATION OF INTERSTATE BORDERS BETWEEN THE PARTIES TO THE CONFLICT, TO THAT END IT IS NECESSARY TO:

Under the control of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, stop the unauthorized adjustment of interstate borders using GPS and start the process of creating prerequisites for the delimitation and subsequent demarcation of borders between the parties to the war in accordance with international law and generally accepted standards of international practice.[16]

NOTE:

Continuing to monitor the dynamics of regional security on the basis of open sources (in the format of Open Sources Intelligence – OSINT), with regard to the unfolding discussion of the interview of the former President, Commander-in-Chief of the RA S. Sargsyan, I consider it my duty to report the following:

Being the head of project development for adjustment of the parliamentary model of the State of Israel to the specifics of the Republic of Armenia and analytical monitoring of the security dynamics of the region in the interests of the security of Armenia and NKR, I do confirm that Mr. S. Sargsyan allowed himself to break the promise not to be elected Prime Minister of Armenia in response to the persuasive arguments of the defense security establishment of the Republic of Armenia and NKR.

The urgent request submitted to President S. Sargsyan was to head the government, based on the lessons of the war of 2016, as well as the agreements reached in Vienna and St. Petersburg on the Karabakh settlement in the same year, to systematically implement the modernized Kazan format for resolving the Karabakh conflict – in the conditions of a new, parliamentary model of government in our state.

The high level of combat capability of the RA Armed Forces throughout the post-Soviet space was confirmed as a result of implementing the strategic defense review (SDR) of Armenia – a process aimed at establishing the correspondence of defense and security environment formed around the country, as well as at building a balance of defense and threats emanating from this environment.

It is important to note that this process of strategic analysis and planning of the RA defense system development until 2018 was carried out in accordance with modern international standards of the NATO Individual Partnership Action Program under the supervision of leading experts of the Russian Federation, the United States, CSTO and NATO. Based on the results of the SDR, medium-term plans for the development of the Armenian Armed Forces were elaborated. The latest SDR, which confirmed the high level of combat capability of the RA defense system, was conducted under the leadership of the RA ex-Commander-in-Chief S. Sargsyan and RA ex-Minister of Defense S. Ohanyan.[17]

The 3rd President of Armenia is also right that with the declaration of martial law in Armenia since the beginning of hostilities in Karabakh, the RA authorities did not use the plan of systematic transferring the Republic of Armenia to the rails of war, which had been repeatedly reviewed by the results of the SDR and Shant nationwide military exercises.

Hayk S. Kotanjian

Lieutenant-General, Professor of RA, RF, USA (Strategic Security Studies), Member of the Board of the Lazarev Club

[1] Remarks by President Biden on America’s Place in the World. Washington, White House, FEBRUARY 04, 2021. Speeches and Remarks. –

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/04/remarks-by-president-biden-on-americas-place-in-the-world/

[2] Д.Тренин. После первой речи. Что сулит России внешнеполитическая программа Байдена. Гибридная война России и Запада. Московский центр Карнеги. Москва-Вашингтон, 12 февраля 2021 г. –https://carnegie.ru/commentary/83859

[3] Т. Грехем и Д. Тренин. Как направить соперничество между США и Россией в безопасное русло. Гибридная война России и Запада. Москва-Вашингтон, 23 декабря 2020 г. –https://carnegie.ru/commentary/83495

[4] Г. Котанджян. МГ ОБСЕ — платформа консенсуса РФ, США и Франции в сдерживании войны. Москва, ИА REGNUM, 9 ноября 2016 г. – https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2207408.html

[5] Заявление президентов России, США и Франции по Нагорному Карабаху. Москва, вебсайт Президента РФ, 1 октября 2020 г. –http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64133

[6] Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia and Azerbaijan agree to ceasefire. London, The Guardian, 10 of October 2020 –https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/10/nagorno-karabakh-armenia-and-azerbaijan-agree-to-ceasefire

Armenia, Azerbaijan agree to new ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Paris, France Press, 17 of October 2020 –

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20201017-armenia-azerbaijan-agree-to-new-ceasefire-in-nagorno-karabakh-conflict

Armenia and Azerbaijan Reach New Cease-Fire for Nagorno-Karabakh, Then Report Violations. The New York Times, 27 of October 2020 –

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/17/world/europe/armenia-azerbaijan-truce-nagorno-karabakh.html

[7] Энтони Блинкен: «Решение должно гарантировать безопасность Нагорного Карабаха и исключить вспышку новой войны». Вашингтон, Радио Азатутюн, 22 января 2021 г. –https://rus.azatutyun.am/a/31063973.html

Макрон выступил за диалог с Россией в интересах мировой стабильности. Москва-Париж, ИЗВЕСТИЯ.iz, 4 февраля 2021 г. – https://iz.ru/1120846/2021-02-04/makron–vystupil–za–dialog–s–rossiei–v–interesakh–mirovoi–stabilnosti

Руденко: «Тройка» Минской группы ОБСЕ должна продолжить работу по Карабаху. Москва, EADaily, 10 февраля 2021 г. –https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2021/02/10/rudenko–troyka–minskoy–gruppy–obse–dolzhna–prodolzhit–rabotu–po–karabahu

[8] Конвенция о предупреждении преступления геноцида и наказании за него. Вашингтон, ООН, Резолюция 260 (III) Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН от 9 декабря 1948 года.

https://www.un.org/ru/documents/decl_conv/conventions/genocide.shtml

ПОМНЮ И ТРЕБУЮ. 100-летие геноцида армян.

http://armeniangenocide100.org/ru/

Постановление Государственной Думы Федерального Собрания РФ от 14 апреля 1995 г. N 694-I ГД Заявление Государственной Думы Федерального Собрания РФ «Об осуждении геноцида армянского народа в 1915-1922 годах» – http://base.garant.ru/6189406/

Сенат Франции принял законопроект о криминализации отрицания геноцида армян. Париж- Москва, ЕВРАЗИЯ ЭКСПЕРТ, 23 января 2021 г. –https://eurasia.expert/riminalizatsiya–otritsaniya–genotsida–armyan/

Сенат Конгресса США единогласно принял резолюцию о признании геноцида армян. Вашингтон-Москва, ТАСС, 12 декабря 2020 г. – https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya–panorama/7337287

Blinken: Biden Administration Will Consult with Congress on April 24th Statement. Washington, Armenian National Committee of America, 23 of January 2021 –https://anca.org/press-release/blinken-biden-administration-will-consult-with-congress-on-april-24th-statement/

[9] Г. Григорян. Международно-правовые основы расследования военных преступлений (на примере нагорно-карабахского вооруженного конфликта).Монография, 560 стр., Ереван, 2018 г. –http://investigative.am/images/girq_h.girq.pdf

[10] СОПРЕДСЕДАТЕЛЬСТВО МИНСКОЙ ГРУППЫ ОБСЕ. Соглашение о прекращении нагорно-карабахского вооруженного конфликта.

http://www.parliament.am/library/LGH/doc_17.pdf

[11] Г. Котанджян. Об инновации инструментария сдерживания военных действий в зонах замороженных военных конфликтов: на примере Карабаха. Москва, журнал МИД РФ Международная жизнь, февраль 2017 г. –https://interaffairs.ru/news/show/16895

[12] Joint Statement by the Heads of Delegation of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair Countries. OSCE, 3 December 2020 –https://www.osce.org/minsk–group/472419

[13] Мадридские принципы, Казанский документ, или предложения Лаврова? Ереван, Аравот – Новости Армении, 21 апреля 2016 г. –

https://www.aravot–ru.am/2016/04/21/207437/

[14] Омбудсмен Армении: власти Азербайджана попирают нормы гуманитаного права в отношении армянских военнопленных. Москва, «European Ombudsman», 8 января 2021 г. –

http://euro-ombudsman.org/ombudsmen_activities/ombudsmen-armenii-vlasti-azerbaydzhana-popirayut-norm-gummanitanogo-prava-v-otnoshenii-armyanskih-voennoplennh

[15] Защита культурных ценностей в случае вооруженного конфликта. Информация об осуществлении Гаагской конвенции 1954 года. О защите культурных ценностей в случае вооруженного конфликта и двух протоколов к ней от 1954 года и 1999 года. ДОКЛАДЫ О ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ В 1995–2004 ГГ. UNESDOC.

https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000140792_rus

[16] Делимитация и демаркация государственных границ в регионе ОБСЕ. Вена, Секретариат ОБСЕ, 19 декабря 2017 г. –https://www.osce.org/ru/secretariat/363471

[17] Министр обороны Армении представил доклад текущего года по ПДИП Армения-НАТО https://rus.azatutyun.am/a/24278878.html