“Another attempt is made to boost conflict settlement process, following hot traces of the developments, thus by that replying to the question: is it possible to record a positive result through a means like resumption of military operations? In my opinion, it’s less probable, and the fact that today Azerbaijan states at meetings, that it’s loyal to the settlement process, speaks of the fact that by its strategy, if it may be called one, didn’t reach its purpose.”
“Erdogan took a bold and unexpected step, clearly realizing what benefits it may gain, and by that step it surprised Russia. Currently the Russian side should understand how it should reflect to Turkey’s attempts of rapprochement, as it shouldn’t neither get excited nor lose Turkey, as Russia-Turkey relations won’t overcome another crisis, Turkey shouldn’t be “threatened” and instigated by acknowledging Erdogan’s sore spots.”
There is a serious risk that long-range ground-to-ground missiles would be used and casualties, particularly civilian, be much higher in the effort to gain a decisive ground advantage. In the wake of the April fighting, the publics in Armenia and Azerbaijan are more ready for military solutions than at any time in 25 years. Russia sees itself as the regional arbiter which is bound to intervene, not least because of its tight treaty relations with Armenia.
“I told previously that Azerbaijan will attempt to make use of any instability in the region, which it attempted to do in April. I’m also of the conviction that activities of Azerbaijan with Turkey aren’t particularly agreed, as Turkey attempts to keep some distance from the conflict, and Azerbaijan strives to involve Turkey. Simply any instability is in favor of Azerbaijan. I think, for a short-term future rehabilitation of Russia-Turkey relations will be positively reflected on NK conflict, however, it won’t completely eliminate the threat for NK conflict outbreak, as Azerbaijan intends to reach its imagined NK conflict settlement through exerting pressure.”
“As I already mentioned, rather serious efforts are exerted, in particular, by the MG Co-Chairs. This is not the time of public diplomacy, and I don’t tend to comment on one of the public statements. Let the diplomacy work,” he said.
“Iran is one of those few countries of he world, which pursues its own policy. They can be counted on fingers. No matter how strange it may seem, Iran is included in them. It survived severe sanctions, which closed world energy market for it. Iran, surely, makes use of Russia, it rather actively used it in the period of sanctions, however, Russia also reckons on Iran. It’s a mutually beneficial political game. Sometimes Iran is a partner, sometimes—an ally, and sometimes—a companion, i.e. relations between Russia and Iran are multilayer.”
Neil Macfarlane, professor of International Relations at Oxford University, specialist on Russia and the South Caucasus, PhD in political science, positively assessed the process by the MG towards making presidential meeting frequent, launched after the April war. In his words, currently the Russian side seemingly puts forward its separate plans in Nagorno-Karabakh, attempting to move towards the direction of cooperation with the USA and France, with the perspective of settling wider relations with the West.
Germany as an OSCE chairing country “seeks to settle the Nagorno Karabakh conflict,” Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs, said to journalists today in Tbilisi.
Jafarov detailed that it refers Akna (Aghdam), Varanda (Fizuli) and Mekhakavan (Jabrail) regions. Jafarov considers that Azerbaijan is ready to become a member of Eurasian Economic Union for the return of those territories and by that enter into the “game.”
“Germany intends to record some result by the end of its presidency and currently all OSCE powers are focused on extinguishing NK conflict fire, as the conflict is rather serious, it resumed in April, and there is a threat, that it may repeat again. In Germany great importance is attached to weakening of tension on NK conflict zone. During conferences, participants of which is Steinmeier as well as his diplomats, the conflict is being observed as the most sharpened conflict in Europe, thus Steinmeier’s efforts are quite understandable and the fact, that it should be on hot points attempting to find ways for agreement.”
