Armenia is a small country that Russia has taken over

“Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan’s decision to join the Customs Union instead of signing a Free and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the European Union is a step back on the way to integration with Europe, and it is also a step back in Armenia’s modernization and development,” says Amanda Paul, expert of the European Policy Centre (EPC) in Brussels. The EPC is a research center that is involved in European integration issues.

In her interview with 168 Zham Amanda Paul said, “Russia has drawn a red line Armenia cannot cross. Accordingly, the logic of relations between Armenia and Russia is that Russia is the one who tells Armenia how far it can go in relation with others, including the European Union.”

Concerning Armenia’s potential benefits from signing the Free and Comprehensive Agreement the expert said, “By signing the agreement Armenia would diversify its economy and make it transparent by reducing corruption, which would make Armenia attractive for investment. This would also reduce the dominant role of Russia and Iran in Armenia’s economy. Armenia would have access to the European market, thus more products would come and go to Europe. By signing that agreement Armenia would make its laws and systems consistent with the European ones, due to which the main sectors of the economy would comply with European standards,” said Amanda Paul.

The expert says that signing the agreement with Europe would enable Armenia drop customs fees on products and sell products in Armenia at cheaper prices. Amanda Paul thinks that Armenia could sign that agreement with Europe, and meanwhile enter into a free trade agreement with Russia. This would open a lot of bright prospects for Armenia, but it seems Russia does not want this option.

“Personally I do not see any benefit from the Customs Union. Armenia is a small country that Russia has taken over due to its dependence on Russia’s security potential, energetic policies and major participation in the Armenian economy. This membership makes Armenia’s sovereignty even weaker,” said Amanda Paul.

In answer our question whether relations with the Customs Union and European Union concern economic benefits only the expert said, “The basic component of the Customs Union and the future Eurasia Union is economic, however, those are exclusively political initiatives. Russia’s goal in this project is developing stronger economic and political influence in areas which Russia likes to call ‘special zones of influence.’ In difference with the EU agreements, the Customs/Eurasia Union anticipates deeper level of integration, which harms the sovereignty of its member countries, especially when the smaller ones.”

We asked the expert to comment on Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan’s announcement that Armenia is going to participate in the summit in Vilnius and sign an amended draft Association Agreement with Europe. In his announcement concerning participation in the summit Sargsyan had said, “We are going to participate in the summit in Vilnius, and we are expecting to make changes to the negotiated agreement, and we are ready to sign the Association Agreement.”

“First, Armenia has never, even before September 3, planned to sign the Association Agreement in Vilnius. Earlier they were planning to pre-sign (like Georgia and Moldova did). These are totally different things. Accordingly, Armenia and the other five countries of the Eastern Partnership project will participate in the summit in Vilnius, but Armenia will not sign the Association Agreement. The EU commissioner responsible for enlargement and neighborhood policy Stefan Fule visited Armenia in September and made a clear statement about it. As the Free and Comprehensive Trade Agreement is deeply integrated with the Association agreement, in order to make a new agreement, the whole agreement has to be broken to pieces. They cannot do this in a short period of time. However, I believe at some point Armenia will pre-sign the Association Agreement,” said Amanda Paul and added that the current situation is very disappointing because during the past years Armenia made many efforts towards Europe, and Brussels welcomed that policy.

The expert says that the most important component of the agreement is its economic part, and if it is taken out, the agreement will lose its significance.

“The purpose of the Association Agreement is enhancement of association with Europe and supporting European values in Armenia. Besides the free and comprehensive trade chapter the agreement has other two chapters such as foreign policy and security, and justice. There is another chapter dedicated to sectoral development. If we take the free and comprehensive trade section out of the agreement, the agreement will lose its importance. If Armenia wants to continue cooperation with Europe and ease the visa process, it should adhere to EU requirements,” said Amanda Paul.

The expert commented on Armenia’s security concerns as well. “I hope Armenia decided to join the Customs Union because of limitation of choice. Armenia is a small country and has been isolated for 25 years due to war with Azerbaijan, and Armenia’s independence fully depends on Russia. I think this was the decisive factor rather than the factors of seasonal workers or gas. Russia’s instrument is the conflict of Karabakh and this instrument can be used any time for Russia’s needs,” said Amanda Paul.

The expert believes Europe will continue being interested in Armenia as it wants to have secure and prosperous neighbors that share European values.

“Europe wants to help Armenia as much as the Armenian key powers want to develop the country and prosper. Accordingly, Europe is interested in developing relations with Armenia. Europe will do its best to develop better relations with Armenia,” said Amanda Paul.

By Aram Sargsyan