Turkish Professor: “Expanded Russian Presence in Armenia Bothers Turkey”
Russia-supporter of Syrian governmental forces, and the USA-supporter of Syrian moderate opposition, came to an agreement the day before on implementing the cessation of hostilities in Syria. The accord would exclude the Islamic State and al-Qaeda-linked Nustra Front terrorist organisations and all other forces qualified as terrorist by the UNO Security Council. Russia and the USA will continue implementing air strikes on these forces. In this regard, 168.am had an interview with Mitat Celikpala, politician, Associate Professor of International Relations at TOBB Economy and Technology University in Ankara, to discuss the agreement and its possible implications.
–As we know, Moscow and Washington came to an agreement on cease-fire in Syria, that will come into force since Friday. On account of unsuccessful destiny of accords on Ukrainian confrontations, what do you think how stable will the agreement be?
I think it’s not the time to speak of the results. Positive result will depend on whether the parties, i.e. Moscow and Washington, succeeded to negotiate on all current issues. The next issue is, that leading powers negotiate, conclude agreements, but we’re not aware of dispositions of other powers engaged in the conflict, as you know, there are a few factors and actors in Syrian conflict, which are uncontrollable. Thus, I won’t confidently say, that Russians and Americans agreed on all these issues, took into account positions of other actors, which allows supposing, that the agreement isn’t complete. However, from my standpoint, this is a positive development, the deal exists between the leading powers, which means, maybe conflict in Syria will be settled soon. This will positively affect Turkey’s policy as well. Of course, if the leading powers decided to leave Assad in power, this is an issue for Turkey, but they had no any other choice. Any settlement and development in Syria means positive development in Turkey’s Middle Eastern policy, as well as for Russia-Turkey confrontation, as global discordances are eliminated, which will keep Turkey apart from further tension with Russia. To conclude, this is a positive development, but in near future I don’t expect settlement of the situation.
-Mr Celikpala, the situation in the Middle East couldn’t but be reflected on Armenia’s foreign policy issues as well. As Russia-Turkey tension is still existent, Armenian experts discuss how Russia would deal with Armenia to perform actions against Turkey or how Turkey will target Armenia to please Azerbaijan and exert pressure on Russia, as Armenia is Russia’s strategic partner? How realistic these scenarios are?
It’s almost impossible to create situations and attack on Armenia from Turkey. I’m sure, decision-makers in Turkey don’t even think of it. Turkey has some fears with respect to Armenia. This refers Russia’s military bases deployed in Armenia; Turkey considers, Russia may make Armenia an outpost against Turkey or Azerbaijan, destabilizing the South Caucasus, which isn’t an issue not only for Turkey, but for the whole region. Instigation or tension of clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a threat to Turkey as well. There are concerns, as Russia’s engagement and military presence in Armenia is still expanding, thus, Turkey has feeling of being occupied, as Russia deploys new bases in the Crimea and Black Sea basin, there are military bases in Armenia and Syria as well, so, it turns out, Turkey is in Russian occupation, accordingly, this concerns decision-makers in Turkey. But this doesn’t mean at all, that Turkey will attack on Armenia, it’s just disappointed of Russian policy. Syria and Iraq, the Crimea and the Black Sea are rather big issues for Turkey, there is no need supplementing destabilized condition by Armenia as well. This isn’t in line with Turkey’s interests.
–Reflections of Turkey’s authorities on Nagorno-Karabakh issue have been actively discussed recently, stating that Armenia should return territories of Azerbaijan and NKR conflict should be settled. From which standpoint these statements should be perceived? Maybe Turkey wants to participate in NKR issue settlement process?
No, it’s not probable now, as Turkey simply anticipates small positive steps from Armenia, let me say, it expects returning of at least two or three occupied territories to Azerbaijan; Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution is a big issue, at the moment it’s difficult to expect big settlement, however, small steps will please Azerbaijan from Turkey’s perspective, weakening tension both of NKR conflict zone and Armenia-Turkey relations. After signing of Armenia-Turkey records, the latter lost contact, which has negative implications both for Turkey and Armenia, as well as for the region. Turkey comprehends, that it may simply support settlement process only peacefully. I don’t think there is such a treat from Turkey, this is a wrong perception, and Russia’s authorities make use of this. But if you ask any Turkish politician on NKR issue, he/she’ll respond, that anticipates promising and positive steps from Armenia. This is official disposition, however, Turkey won’t apply to aggressive interference.
Excerpt from the interview
By Araks Martirosyan
