Russia and the USA Function in Minsk Group Giving Carte Blanche to one Another
Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of the Caucasus Institute, politician, is the interviewee of 168.am.
–Recently James Warlick, OSCE Minsk group American co-chair, finally clarified that Aliyev-Sargsyan meeting in Washington within Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) isn’t planned, however, there was grounded information that the USA exerted serious efforts to organize likewise, at least backstage meeting, also on account of activity and initiative by the USA in conflict settlement. There are allegations that the meeting was failed by the Azerbaijani party. What do you think of this?
-I consider it has no more importance. Yes, the USA exerted efforts to make the meeting come true. However, even if it took place, I think big results shouldn’t have been expected not at all, like no results were recorded after former meetings and won’t be after all the forthcoming ones. Accordingly, I’m of the opinion that this is a media balloon, which to some scale, exists in Armenia and in Azerbaijan. And situation between the parties isn’t the one to expect serious results.
–Opinions are being circulated, that by collapse of Washington meeting, activity and leadership by the USA in peaceful settlement of the conflict will be terminated and the Russian one will be implemented. Do you see such a perspective?
-I don’t comment what others say. Minsk group is one of the single dimensions in international relations, that maybe, besides Afghanistan, where Americans, Europeans and Russians are working in unison. And in case of Afghanistan it doesn’t even bear an official character, like that of Minsk group. This is the only platform, on which three co-chairs work together, under global issues on USA-Russia, Europe-Russia platform.
To think that they grab liabilities form one another, fight against each other for a priority in a conflict, to which there is no settlement for already 25 years, I consider, is an implication of incompetency and politicized opinion. Co-chairs inside Minsk group work by giving carte blanche to one another.
Of course, competition is available there, however, on the whole, the purpose among all the co-chairs is the same, and it’s not settlement of the conflict, as currently it’s impossible, everybody understands this. The purpose is that the process continued, and the security dimension, existent for the time being, was maintained, i.e. Minsk process, which is one of political security dimensions of settlement, here the three parties cooperate with one another, Russia spreads an activity when it’s easy for it, like “Maydorf” after Russia-Georgia war, here Russia had a carte blanche from the USA, today he Americans are more active, and this a type of work, in which all three parties need approximately the same.
– Did developments mentioned by you change the situation around NKR conflict, interests of the co-chairs?
-I don’t observe serious changes regarding NKR issue. Serious changes have been recorded 4-5 years ago, when Azerbaijan activated its militant policy and this started to change their essence, from shootings to sabotage attacks and etc., reminding also of this on Armenia-Azerbaijan border. This was a shift. All changes, which may occur now, are linked to drop of prices for oil, existent problems in Azerbaijan, however, I think these changes are just about to start and I want to see to which direction changes will be recorded. Nothing else has changed.
–There are concerns that Russia-Turkey conflict, developments in the Middle East have raised Azerbaijan’s price for Russia, and maybe after the failed meeting, separatist actions might be launched on Russia-Azerbaijan pole.
-As already mentioned, I don’t share and comment others’ standpoints. In my opinion, panic moods or fear is a factor typical to inter-Armenian political field, and it has nothing to do with external developments. There were panic moods, when Russia was in good ties with Turkey, currently likewise moods are existent regarding worsening of ties. Azerbaijan had, has and will have a value for Russia. This is a lasting format in Azerbaijan-Russia relations, let’s not forget weaponry selling, cooperation in transport communication, Gabala radar station, it’s a permanent factor, which should be always followed and professional approach should be manifested.
We shouldn’t also forget that likewise Armenia-Russia cooperation format is existent in military-technical, political and economic fields. Visit of Russia’s Prime Minister to Yerevan is anticipated. For Russia both Armenia and Azerbaijan are of certain value and they’re not going to lose none of them. Cooperation level with Armenia is a bit higher, however, Azerbaijan was of economic value, but it is changing now. It’s a constant process.
–From Medvedev’s visit the society is interested in price for gas. To your mind, may reduction in price for gas anticipated by Russia? Will it be included in the agenda of the visit?
-Judging from everything, reduction in price in the territory of Armenia will be recorded. Generally prices for gas are formulated in an interesting way, as compared to prices for oil, stocks. Gas stocks don’t exist, they are formed locally, there is no global price for gas, and currently it’s intended to initiate a gas stock in St. Petersburg, it fails, although it’s also local. Prices for gas change quickly, including out of political perceptions, i.e. judging from this factor, prices may be “tricked,” but not for a long period. I consider, it’ll be announced during the forthcoming visit.
By Araks Martirosyan
