“If the USA didn’t do it, I’m sure, the war would last not for 5 but for 15, 20, 30 days, until Armenia ran out of bullets”
Interview with Aram Sargsyan, former RA Prime Minister, leader of “Republic” party.
Mr. Sargsyan, Armenia’s authorities introduce results of the meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in Vienna as a victory. It was confirmed, that the agreement reached in 1994 was in force and etc., and loss of 800 hectares is introduced as loss of desert territory, which has no essential importance for the Armenian side. What’s your assessment to the situation after the April war, what expectations do you have?
I share Karabakhi president Bako Sahakyan’s opinion and always shared that standpoint, that even worst negotiations are better, than war. Moreover, I think, there is one variant to the settlement for Armenia —reaching recording of results acquired through war by means of negotiations. Variants in this regard were a lot, they’ve been discussed since the times of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, accomplished with Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. There is no sense and necessity in inventing a new bicycle, and the issue should be settled by one of them. Geo-political and economic balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been violated recently. And out of this Azerbaijan initiated those provocative steps. However, it’s not the decision of Azerbaijan only, a serious external political factor was existent there, and as a pivot for that factor, in my conviction, at that time out strategic partner Russia appeared in favor of Azerbaijan. As for the territory of 800 hectares, the international community touches upon achievements by Azerbaijan for the first time in the recent period, it also states that Armenians don’t consider it essential. Aliyev gives hope to his people, that their military expenditures weren’t useless, and if Armenia didn’t agree on peaceful settlement of the conflict and continued to maintain the status quo, it’ll attempt to settle the issue militarily.
You touched upon Russia’s role, Azerbaijani officials also state that the war was suspended upon Moscow’s dictate. In your opinion, which was Russia’s role in all this?
The war was a great opportunity for us to understand our friends and opponents, and draw serious conclusions from here if we don’t want to lose former victories. What interests do our current strategic partner Russia and other EEU partners pursue? Obviously, Russia faces one issue—possession of energy resources of this region, and serious gas and oil reserves are possessed by Azerbaijan and Iran, and those resources may come out to the European market through bypassing Russia.
Imagine, under these sanctions, when Russia relies only on raw material resources, has not only oil and gas contestant enterprises in Europe, which will reduce prices, but also countries, which will construct those gas pipelines, which will influence on the pipeline, thus, political influence over the region. This is impermissible for Russia, the country will simply collapse, that’s why it decided to be maximally positioned in the region. What is necessary for that? Firstly, it should be deployed here as a peacekeeping mission, secondly, do everything possible to make Azerbaijan an EEU member country. In this regard Russia launched a rather risky procedure. I consider Russia didn’t have trust, that Azerbaijan won’t get enthusiastic of launching military operations against Karabakh at a certain moment and won’t obey his commands and won’t stop.
That’s why Russia immediately launched military trainings in the territories near Azerbaijan, meaning: if you go on, I’ll enter. Turkey’s reflection followed it: the latter immediately launched military equipment and units in Nakchivan, i.e. if you attempt, we’ll enter as well. All this is obvious, when you look to the deadlines. However, Russia initiated that game, as their scheme was as follows: after taking 1-2 positions, they’d take some cities, for instance Fizuli or Martakert, after which Armenia’s authorities will have to request Russia to support them as a strategic partner, and they can’t reject, as Russia’s only base in the region, where it’s introduced and has a military base, which wasn’t eliminated like Gabala, and said: get away, it’s Armenia. And if Armenia loses, it’s also Russia’s shame and defeat. And after taking 1-2 cities Russia should mediate upon Armenia’s request. This was hinted by Serzh Sargsyan as well, in an interview to Bloomberg, stating that regarding peacekeepers one should request, but nobody did until that moment.
After Russia’s mediation, obviously, political changes would have been recorded in Armenia as well, S.Sargsyan would be considered as a president withdrawing lands, who should leave, and their candidate for their lovely president would come on a white horse with his team, preparation works for which were in process, and authorities were observing it and were sure in it. Why didn’t it occur and who was that helping friend? It was the USA, where 2 senators—Roy and Engel, completely not pro-Armenian, initiated petition for recognition of NKR. Four U.S. states in two days recognized Karabakh’s independence, by that the USA stated if Russia intends to settle the issue differently and deploy peacekeepers, they’ll follow Kosovo variant and will recognize NK independence. That game was caught by Armenian MFA, which stated that they’d recognize it as well. That’s the point.
If the USA didn’t do that, I’m sure, war would last not for 5, but for 15, 20, 30 days, until Armenia ran out of bullets. Fortunately, the issue was settled this way, and in this regard this doesn’t mean that the whole world is Armenia’s opponent and intends to settle issue on account of Armenia. Not at all. There are countries, interests of which are in line with ours, and we need to take that direction.
In fact, were Russia’s efforts in vain?
Absolutely, Russia’s efforts were in vain, and it became obvious, that at war, due to our soldiers, glory to them, those 18-19 year-old young men, who were able to maintain our dignity and honor, and that plan wasn’t implemented, i.e. Azerbaijan failed to record serious territorial achievements, also the issue didn’t get to the point that in that context encouraging by EEU member countries led to Azerbaijan’s engagement with EEU. Even in that case, I’m suspicious, that Azerbaijan would become an EEU member country, as influence of British economic and political factor in Azerbaijani economy, both regarding oil and gas, is great. Recently exchange rate fall in Azerbaijan doesn’t possess that economic potential by having immense natural resources, export of which is a serious issue and will become a serious instigation for Azerbaijan. In that war Armenia, Azerbaijan and Iran suffered the most. Moreover, I think, this war was directed against Iran.
How come?
After being unsanctioned Iran is a superpower, tended to sell gas to Europe. For this purpose, surprisingly enough, the best way for the USA and the EU is through Armenia. Of course, that way may be through Azerbaijan and Georgia was well, through bypassing Russia, however, the best way both economically and politically, is through the territory of Armenia. Iran faces problems with Azerbaijan linked to Tabriz state, pan-Turkish plans of Azeris. And when the pipeline stretches through Turkey, having influence in Turkey of 70-80 million is more complicated, than in case it passes through Armenia. The gas pipeline also provides a political influence and they could dictate and shouldn’t be forced to wiretap, for instance, the German Chancellor. Currently, that monopoly belongs to Russia and the latter perfectly makes it work both materially, by rising prices, and politically, threatening to suspend supply in mid-winter.
By Gayane Khachatryan
