Russia Launches a New Settlement Process Parallel to Vienna
After high-level negotiations were held in Vienna on May 16 between Sargsyan and Aliyev after the April four-day war, the next presidential meeting format is being shaped. Like yesterday OSCE MG U.S. Co-chair James Warlick informed that a meeting will be launched on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in late June.
“Although we have no information on meeting details for the time being, however, we may confirm that the meeting will be held in the end of June,” James Warlick said, expressing hope that the sides will continue to discuss the agreements reached in Vienna in May. It’s noteworthy that this time the meeting, to all probabilities, as the Russian side strives right after the April four-day war, will be held in Russia, in particular, in Saint Petersburg, on which by mistake was released by Russia’s Foreign Ministry yesterday, basically uncovering purposes of Russian diplomacy.
According to the inedited release, Russia is preparing a trilateral meeting , which presupposes a meeting upon Sargsyan-Putin-Aliyev format, around which these days Grigori Karasin, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, held negotiations with French and Azerbaijani sides. And although Russian Foreign Ministry already denied it yesterday, that such a meeting is planned, Dmitri Peskov, spokesman of RF president, touched upon the trilateral meeting, stating that works are being implemented directed to organization of a trilateral meeting between leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia.
Interesting enough, parallel to these preparations, visit of Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, to Germany has been recorded, where he highly assessed Russia-Azerbaijan relations and Russia’s policy on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone. OSCE MG Russian Co-chair Igor Popov’s first extensive interview followed this, where he touched upon signing of a frame agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, on which the Co-chairs were silent after the April war on account of the three conditions put forward by Armenia’s president on resumption of negotiations. And against this background talks are being circulated on a trilateral meeting in Russia, to which the Azerbaijani side is not against, and Western Co-chairs, to all probabilities, won’t participate. And again concerns are being expressed, that the document called “Lavrov plan”, “Russian plan” made as a result of Russia-Azerbaijan deal may be brought to the negotiation table.
Sergey Minasyan, Deputy Director of Caucasus Institute, stated that he doesn’t observe a particular liaison between the visit of Ilham Aliyev paid to Germany and statements made recently. According to him, they are mostly linked to the results of Vienna meeting. “It’s perfect that it’s the continuation of processes recorded in April. Rather nervous and conspiracy theories are available regarding Russia-Azerbaijan processes. I don’t believe that everything is purified, as many claim.
On the other hand, we need to claim that despite the scheduled meeting, Russia was playing and will always play the leading role in Minsk Group. Russia organized presidential meetings, it refers both to Medvedev and Putin, and will continue it. It was anticipated upon Vienna results both installation of investigative mechanisms and start for real negotiations, however, it’s a question—will those negotiations bring some result or not? One shouldn’t panic and look for conspiracies in Russia-Azerbaijan deals,” he said.
According to him talks on frame agreement have been developed for more than 10 years. “For the last time the sides touched upon it around Kazan document, and what they attempt to introduce to the sides is the new variant of Kazan document with amendments, which the Armenian side theoretically approved, and Azerbaijan—not. Here I don’t think there is need for more concern. On the other hand, I’m suspicious that after the April events, when mechanisms of trust haven’t been strengthened, we may touch upon serious progress. The sides may discuss, however, regarding this issue we can’t record a progress,” Sergey Minasyan said.
Aghasi Yenokyan, Director of the Armenian Center for Political and International Studies, told 168.am that Russia, parallel to the process in Vienna, initiated a new process, which doesn’t fit into the Vienna logic. He considers, here Russia is appearing simply from its name. “There was information that consultation with France has been recorded, and the U.S. isn’t being touched upon, which is contrary to Vienna process. Russia isn’t appearing in name of OSCE, but appears as Russian Federation,” Aghasi Yenokyan said.
According to the latter Armenia has two ways, one of which is using other Co-chairs, so that the latter made Russia appear only with united programs. ‘This way is strict opposition towards Russia, i.e. rejection of Russian plans. Seemingly we can’t take the same direction. In any case, developments around the air defense system prove it. We could have rejected those plans, especially when other Co-chairs don’t support Russia’s acting alone and putting forward its plans,” he said.
According to the political scientist, the USA showed, that it’s ready to support Armenia in this regard. “The USA organized Vienna meeting, after which Azerbaijan attempted to withdraw from Vienna responsibilities, brought back to that scope, the USA exerted Azerbaijan to free political prisoners, and all this was the result of the U.S. pressure and the Armenian side has the possibility of using it,” Yenokyan said.
By Araks Martirosyan
