Putin Neutralized the Threat: Azerbaijan May Shoot Unobstructed
As anticipated by the Armenian side and OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs, yesterday’s Sargsyan-Putin-Aliyev trilateral meeting launched in St. Petersburg didn’t become continuation of the Vienna meeting held on May 16. Crucial point of Vienna meeting was installation of investigative mechanisms and the main means of preventing war, as it will provide the opportunity to reveal the side initiating war.
This is what Azerbaijan needs the least, for which statements by the international community putting parity between the two sides are a pledge to initiate any sabotage or military operations against Nagorno-Karabakh. At least, during the meeting in St. Petersburg, according to official statements, the issue of installation of those mechanisms hasn’t been touched upon at all. It’s not reflected in the joint statement of the three presidents, which particularly reads,
“At the invitation of the President of the Russian Federation, the Presidents of the Republic of Armenia, Russian Federation and Republic of Azerbaijan met in Saint Petersburg on June 20, 2016 and discussed issues pertaining to the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh problem. The Presidents of the Republic of Armenia and Republic of Azerbaijan reiterated agreements reached at the May 16 Armenian-Azerbaijani Summit in Vienna aimed at the stabilization of the situation in the conflict area and creation of an atmosphere conducive for moving the peace process forward. Towards that end, they agreed in particular to increase the number of international observers. They expressed satisfaction with the fact that recently the ceasefire regime at the line of contact has been upheld. There took place a substantial exchanged of opinions regarding the pivotal issues related to the settlement.
The Heads of State took note of mutual understanding on a number of issues the resolution of which will allow to create condition for progress in the settlement of the NK issue. The Presidents mentioned the importance of their regular meetings and reached an agreement to continue them in the same format in addition to the activities carried out by the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group. The Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group were invited to take part in the final part of the meeting in Saint Petersburg.” In this statement, as already mentioned, there is no any reflection to installation of investigative mechanisms. Of course “pivotal issues related to the settlement,” “took note of mutual understanding on a number of issues” and other common formulations may be considered those ones, however, nominally a single word isn’t mentioned in the statement.
In case, when installation of monitoring mechanism was the key point of Vienna meeting, and by the way, precondition put forward by Serzh Sargsyan, RA president, to meet Aliyev after Vienna. It didn’t occur.
More or less object agreement reached in St. Petersburg refers increasing the number of observers at the contact line. However, it should be noted, that increase of the number of OSCE observers is considered a step deriving from installation of investigative mechanisms, which was touched upon after the Vienna meeting.
That is, for the time being it may be recorded that Vladimir Putin, RF president, succeeded to neutralize the threat after the Vienna meeting: installation of mechanism of resolution of the one unleashed the threat—the war, on account of which a range of circumstances weren’t beneficial not only for Azerbaijan, but for the latter’s armaments supplier—Russia, as well.
What will be Armenia’s reflection to this?
By Robert Ter-Sargsyan
