They Attempt to Make Sargsyan-Putin-Aliyev Format an Alternative to OSCE MG: Vadim Dubnov
“Moscow and Washington don’t hinder one another in peaceful settlement of NK conflict,” Vadim Dubnov, Russian analyst, told 168.am, touching upon Sargsyan-Putin-Aliyev negotiation results launched in St. Petersburg.
Note, upon results of yesterday’s meeting the presidents released a joint statement, “At the invitation of the President of the Russian Federation, the Presidents of the Republic of Armenia, Russian Federation and Republic of Azerbaijan met in Saint Petersburg on June 20, 2016 and discussed issues pertaining to the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh problem.
The Presidents of the Republic of Armenia and Republic of Azerbaijan reiterated agreements reached at the May 16 Armenian-Azerbaijani Summit in Vienna aimed at the stabilization of the situation in the conflict area and creation of an atmosphere conducive for moving the peace process forward. Towards that end, they agreed in particular to increase the number of international observers. They expressed satisfaction with the fact that recently the ceasefire regime at the line of contact has been upheld. There took place a substantial exchanged of opinions regarding the pivotal issues related to the settlement.
The Heads of State took note of mutual understanding on a number of issues the resolution of which will allow to create condition for progress in the settlement of the NK issue. The Presidents mentioned the importance of their regular meetings and reached an agreement to continue them in the same format in addition to the activities carried out by the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group. The Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group were invited to take part in the final part of the meeting in Saint Petersburg.”
The statement raised a range of issues on account of the fact that the issue of installation of investigative mechanisms along all the contact line wasn’t enshrined in it, which was the crucial point of Vienna meeting. Vadim Dubnov, assessing the meeting results, told if there were anticipations that epoch-making breakthrough will be recorded, then he should disappoint and state that such a progress shouldn’t have been anticipated.
From the standpoint of practical issues, according to Dubnov, expansion of OSCE observers is a positive step.
“I think it’ll be beneficial. In my opinion, this is a start for certain technical procedures, i.e. reaching agreements, which, surely “won’t rescue” the situation, won’t completely maintain ceasefire, however, at least it’s a concrete agreement, influence of which should be neither overestimated nor underestimated, as it may be useful. I consider nobody had great expectations from these negotiations, including negative ones, although there were serious opinions and expectations in Armenia in this regard. Earlier I considered it a PR step, and presently it’s useless discussing it. Simply Moscow recorded another step in its favor; Europe provided Moscow the chance to take that step.
And seemingly everybody returned to the condition, which was existent prior to the war—status quo, which is beneficial to Armenia,” Vadim Dubnov clarified.
The latter also explained, that regarding controlling, investigative mechanisms an agreement wasn’t recorded, to all probabilities, due to the reason that Azerbaijan was categorically against that issue and blocked the process of installation of those mechanisms at the yesterday’s meeting. To the question what means the part of the statement referring to the format of forthcoming meetings, whether it’s possible that those mechanisms were held by a trilateral format, the Russian analyst replied,
“I don’t consider that this trilateral format may become an alternative to the Minsk Group. I think, this is a sign to seek for an alternative, to which nobody gives importance, as Minsk Group format is international, although it’s not so productive, it corresponds to the essence of the conflict, where neither side has a monopoly. Thus, in Russian format, I don’t consider a scenario will be available, which will be beneficial to all the sides. Within this format it’s possible to develop certain proposals, which, in any case, will be confirmed and later on discussed in a wider context with wider engagement of the participants.”
He also stated that Moscow and Washington currently act not agreed, but at least, don’t hinder one another.
By Araks Martirosyan
