Russia has Lost the Post-Soviet Space: Alexey Malashenko
“Erdogan intends to get rid of the Kurdish issue and the Islamic State (IS),” Alexey Malashenko, member of the Scientific Council of the Moscow Carnegie Center, Chairman of the Religion, Society and Security Program, political analyst, told 168.am reflecting to the developments in the Middle East, in particular, Turkish activities in Syria. He stated that after the attempted coup Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan faced complicated foreign policy issues and the imperative of shaping foreign policy “victories.”
According to Malashenko the issues include the IS and the Kurdish issue, succeeded pressures against which may become victories for Erdogan. At the same time, these two issues, in his opinion, are equally hazardous for Erdogan. Thus, in his conviction, Turkey has two targets in Syria—the IS and Kurds, although Erdogan doesn’t completely imagine consecutiveness of his activities and accomplishment of his steps.
“Kurdish issue is Turkey’s eternal issue, as Kurdish population in Turkey comprises a serious number not only in Turkey, but also in Syria, moreover, they want sovereignty. Kurds fight for establishment of Big Kurdistan, which may become a blow for Iraq, Syria and Turkey. There is an impression that Erdogan attempts to settle the Kurdish issue militarily, as settlement of the issue has become a dream for him. Not accidentally, Kurds in Syria appeared in Erdogan’s target, who are really organized and armed forces, than Kurds living in Turkey, who also organize terror acts. These forces have external support as well. In my conviction through this way Erdogan can’t settle this issue, which became eternal for him, he can do it only politically,” Russian analyst said.
Regarding the Islamic State, he believes, that Erdogan-IS relations are yet complicated, however, here Erdogan may record local, but not final victory, as he’ll never succeed to eliminate that ideology. According to Malashenko, Turkey’s current president, the society don’t need such organized and cruel Islamists at all. “Erdogan simply intends to get rid of the Islamic State, he doesn’t need that,” Malashenko said.
Russian analyst said, that in this situation Russia’s decisions are also complicated. However, in his conviction, it’s already becoming clear, that Moscow’s decision to support Assad wasn’t proper, as Putin has chosen between worse and the worst. According to Malashenko, further steps should be developed and cautious, as Syria is Russia’s zone of influence in the Middle East. “Russia can’t lose this, as it loses the post-Soviet zone of Russian influence,” Malashenko said.
To the question whether development of Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) speaks of loss, Malashenko replied, that it’s not a functioning organization, no matter how much they’ll touch upon its usefulness. “All member countries are discontent with that Union, it doesn’t function, Russia’s all partners are discontent with the policy pursued by Russia, this speaks of losing this territory.”
Reflecting to the impact of developments in the Middle East on NK zone development, he stated that he doesn’t observe any direct, as well as indirect liaison in the developments taking place in those two zones. “Karabakh conflict has its dynamics of development, I don’t see any perspectives for its settlement. It’s not excluded that Turkey’s activities in Syria will push Azerbaijan to cautiousness on account of political changes anticipating there,” Malashenko said.
By Araks Martirosyan
