Why was Iranian president’s visit to Armenia postponed and what to anticipate from that visit?
Interview with Armen Vardanyan, expert on Iranian issues.
Mr. Vardanyan Iranian media, in particular, Fars News Agency, published information that Iranian president Hasan Rouhani will visit Armenia this week, then it edited the statement—Rouhani will visit by the end of the year. Prior to this Iranian mass media was silent regarding this issue. What do you think, what has changed?
Firstly, let me clarify that the statement by Fars wasn’t official—it was making reference to its own sources. However, upon information at my disposal, Rouhani will visit Yerevan by the end of this year. To all likelihood, the visit will be recorded in late December. Apparently, it was already clear from summer, that this year Rouhani should visit Armenia. However, it’s my deep conviction, that the visit is being postponed, as relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have improved throughout this period, moreover, as Azerbaijan-Israel relations are a sensitive topic for Iran, as sensitive Armenia-Iran relations are for Azerbaijan, which the latter hinted to Iran.
In this regard war of positions is taking place between the two sides, regarding which one will take the first step. It’s been touched upon long ago that Israeli PM Netanyahu should visit Azerbaijan. Last week it became clear that by the end of ongoing year he’ll visit Azerbaijan, after which the Iranian side made a clarification regarding its visit to Armenia, informing that Rouhani will visit Armenia by the end of this year. In summer, when Armenian FM visited Tehran, where he was welcomed on a high level, hysteria was observed from the side of Azerbaijani press and politicians.
Moreover, Haqqin.az, which is considered to be non-official tube of Azerbaijani president’s administration, published an article by the dictation of Azerbaijani authorities, where clear blackmail to the Iranian authorities was observed regarding the following issue: if Rouhani visits Armenia, in response, Aliyev should pay a visit to Israel and launch an Embassy to Azerbaijan, as there is an Embassy to Israel in Azerbaijan. After that Iran seemed to be at standby, then it became clear that Netanyahu will visit Azerbaijan by the end of ongoing year, the Iranian side opened its cards and it was uncovered that Rouhani will visit Armenia by the end of the year.
Wasn’t Armenian or, maybe Russian factor existent in the postponement of this issue?
No, I don’t condition it by the Armenian factor. Just the contrary, Armenia desired the visit to take place. Here only the Azerbaijani factor is observed. By Rouhani’s presidency Iran-Azerbaijan relations have considerably improved, as prior to that they were rather tense. Currently mutual visits are being recorded: eight Rouhani-Aliyev meetings have been launched during different summits and visits. Parallel to this, the issue of reciprocal action is existent as well, which I have touched upon.
On account of the factors mentioned by you, which agenda should be anticipated from Rouhani’s visit to Armenia, as the sides have been long prepared for the visit? There are many expectations, however, restricting factors are existent as well, as you said.
Of course, Armenia-Iran political relations are on a rather high level. There is no any serious discrepancy between the sides, instead, economic relations aren’t equivalent to political relations. There are several serious projects, the issue of exporting Iranian commodities to Europe through the territory of Armenia is being discussed. In this regard two days ago RA Ministry of Transport, Communication and IT issued a statement, which reads that small Iranian containers should be transported to Europe through the territory of Armenia, an attempt is made to more improve the data, establish beneficial conditions so that Armenia became a transit country for Iranian commodities.
I consider the key point of this visit will be economic and energy relations, projects, although the political context is available as well. I think after that visit Armenia and Iran will show Azerbaijan that they’re not going to damage their relations for the sake of Azerbaijan.
In your opinion around which economic projects clarity should be introduced in visible future?
There is a pilot project on exporting Iranian gas to Georgia, there will be some clarity regarding the issue. WPP in Meghri has been long discussed, which should be constructed by the Iranian side, however, due to lack of funds it’s not able to construct, maybe that issue will be covered as well. Construction of the third power line seems to be in process. Main topic of negotiations will be export of Iranian gas.
How coordinated are Armenia-Iran relations or are they conditioned by “Gazprom” on account of the circumstance that by the assignment of PM Karen Karapetyan a delegation headed for Tehran to sign a memorandum with Iran on gas sales and transit after the visit of “Gazprom” head Alexey Miller to Yerevan?
Opinions of the Armenian expert community divide into two parts. Some of them consider that “Gazprom” will prevent, and the other part considers that it won’t. I belong to the number of experts, who consider that Armenia’s authorities succeeded to come to an agreement with “Gazprom.” Export of gas from Iran to Georgia is beneficial to “Gazprom” as well, as that gas will be in limited quantity, the issue of construction of a new pipeline hasn’t been set, gas will be transferred through a pipeline belonging to “Gazprom,” i.e. that tube may be disjoined when the latter wishes. Everything will be under the control of “Gazprom.” When Georgia buys gas from Azerbaijan, “Gazprom” won’t gain from it, it’s beneficial for the latter that Georgia bought gas from Iran and it was supplied to Georgia through a pipeline belonging to “Gazprom,” it will have benefit, and there is no threat. In my opinion, this issue has been agreed on a high level, thus, those issues develop with no obstruction.
So there is no resistance, as perspective project, i.e. transit of Iranian gas to Europe, isn’t shaped.
The project, by which it’s planned to export Iranian gas to Georgia, construction of new gas pipeline and transit of Iranian gas to Europe isn’t planned.
By Araks Martirosyan
