Armenia and Abkhazia on a new dimension: why does Russia refresh united military agreements?
It’s been about a year that Russia initiated works towards refreshing the agreement on joint group of troops with Armenia. The Russian unit, bothering greater part of Armenian expert community, was functioned within the Southern Military District, meant for the defense of Russian southern borders. Vladimir Putin has already approved the proposal by the Russian Government on signing a respective agreement between Armenia and Russia. It’s has also been assigned to Russian Defense Ministry to launch negotiations with the Armenian side with the participation of Russian Foreign Ministry, on signing the agreement.
The draft has been submitted to Russian Defense Ministry, agreed with other bodies of the Foreign Ministry’s executive body. Pursuant Russian Interfax agency, the group will comprise Russian 102nd military base and 5th Army Corps on Armenia’s western borders, and the key issue will be, in particular, “covering” Russia’s southern border, together with CSTO forces. Pursuant the same sources, united Russia-Armenia military forces will be headed by combined command, commander of which will be appointed by Armenia’s Supreme Commander.
At peace the command will be under Armenia’s leadership, and at war—under Chief of General Staff of the Southern Military District of Russian army. By the way, in an interview with “Rossiya Segodnya” Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan reflected to united Armenia-Russia troops, particularly stating that it’s not news and was established in early 1990s. “There is command, forces and means. We, of course, will thoroughly study the new points to be included in the agreements upon the decree of the President of Russia,” Serzh Sargsyan said. It became clear from these observations by the Armenian President, that changes have been initiated by the Russian side, which haven’t yet been discussed with Armenia, which worries experts, assuring that united troops will serve exclusively Russian interests in Armenia.
Earlier “168 Hours” asked a comment to Defense Ministry’s spokesperson Artsrun Hovhannisyan, who said that the troops have operated since 1990s, and currently the agreement is being refreshed. “The contingent includes 102nd military base, some Armenian divisions, headed by Andranik Makaryan,” he said. To our question which functions it implements and will implement pursuant the new agreement, Hovhannisyan didn’t reply, stating that it isn’t subject to comment.
Military expert Vladimir Yevseev, Head of Caucasus Department of the CIS Institute, attempted to clarify what the group will do, and why the Russian side intended to refresh the agreement. As compared to some Armenian experts, insisting that the military group will solve Russian issues in Armenia, Yevseev is sure, that Armenia-Russia united military group provides Armenia’s security. According to him, NK won’t be under its control. However, according to the military expert, on account of the circumstance, that the military group supposes united air-defense system, it will particularly “cover” NK.
Although the expert agreed: the military aviation didn’t operate during the April war. “That is to say, that territory isn’t formally controlled, however, united air-defense may provide data on Karabakh, as united air-defense systems have serious capabilities. The main issue for Armenia is neutralization of the military threat. It may come from both sides—Turkey and Azerbaijan, here Armenia-Azerbaijan border is meant as well, including Nakhchivan. Thus, I suppose, that military group excludes the possibility of penetration into the territory of Armenia and guarantees Armenia’s sovereignty.
This may be applicable on Karabakh as well. United military group, naturally, is being developed in Armenia by Russia on account of Russian military base, where modernization works are being carried out. Fighters have undergone modernization, upon information at my disposal, the helicopter park has been strengthened as well. Thus, the Russian side is introduced with the military base, but I don’t know who is from the Armenian side,” Yevseev said.
Regarding Russian interest in this agreement, Yevseev said this is what Armenia may rely on regarding its borders. “On account of force composition, new armaments, which have been supplied to Armenia, I don’t consider that real military threat may emerge, which may lead to penetration into the territory of Armenia, this will exclude penetration. The April war gave serious lessons to the many. I consider, likewise development wasn’t desirable for Russia, our side would like that the April tragic events didn’t repeat. It’s yet difficult to say exactly what kind of military-technical means will be applied, however, potential of Russian military base in Gyumri will be expanded, and the fact that there were supplies to Armenia, is also a good signal, signal to those, intending to resume another war, I mean “Iskander.”
Of course, Azerbaijan may dream of super ammunition, however, where should it take from? Armaments purchase from Pakistan can’t be advantageous for war resumption, as Russia won’t sell such weaponry to Azerbaijan. Russia has liabilities before Armenia, and let me repeat once again, repetition of the April developments isn’t a desirable scenario for Russia, that’s why Russia has adopted such a policy,” Yevseev said.
It’s also noteworthy, that parallel to the agreement refreshing with Armenia, Russian president Vladimir Putin ratified the agreement on united troops of Russia and Abkhazia. Gela Vasadze, editor-in-chief of Black Sea Press, political scientist, stressed that coincidences in big politics happen randomly, and in case of Russia it’s totally excluded.
“Of course, I don’t consider that it’s coincidence: this is the reflection of Russian big policy in the South Caucasus, generally in the Caucasus. However, let’s observe them one by one, as Armenia is an independent, sovereign country, and although I’m completely sure, that military cooperation, as well as generally policy pursued by Russia contradicts Armenia’s national interests, Armenia’s authorities have the right to make that decision.
Abkhazia is an occupied territory, of course, development of united military group in their occupied territory is groundless from legal point of view. As for the state of affairs, in fact, nothing changes, as throughout recent years there was combined command there. Unfortunately, Georgia’s incumbent authorities aren’t capable of equal response to these realities, as, for instance, the West, NATO have already made statements on this issue, qualifying it as illegal,” Vasadze said.
The latter doesn’t consider that forces deployed in Armenia may productively control Georgian direction, which isn’t possible to say on Abkhazia and South Ossetia. “Those forces may control Tbilisi, and communications— Caucasus, Middle East, moreover, West, East, Europe, China. This should be observed within Russian current big policy,” Vasadze said.
In his turn, Ruben Mehrabyan, expert at the Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS), stressed that there is no doubt: what is taking place in Armenia-Russia relations linked to strengthening of Russian presence under Armenia-Russia united military troops, surely, has regional context. Moreover, in his words, Russia has mobilized its complete resource basis to strengthen its presence in the South Caucasus, for which it no more makes any difference between the means.
“And impersonal posture of the Armenian side puts the latter on the same platform with Abkhazia. Of course, any explanation, that this comes from Armenia’s interests, can’t be taken seriously. This is meant to exclusively serve Russian interests,” Mehrabyan said. According to the latter, the concrete threat is that influence of Russian factor on defense policy in the Republic of Armenia considerably increases. Ruben Mehrabyan believes, that at any moment the military group will control the direction, which the Russian side will be interested in, and here Armenia’s role is zero.
By Araks Martirosyan
