The co-chairs attempted to close the window of Russian initiative in NK conflict settlement: Styopa Safaryan
Interview with Styopa Safaryan, founder and head of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs (AIISA).
Mr. Safaryan, within the OSCE Ministerial Council in Hamburg Foreign Ministers of the co-chair countries issued a statement, reflecting to NK conflict settlement, urging the parties to remove all remaining obstacles to expanding the mission of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office and to make progress on a proposal to establish an OSCE investigative mechanism. What’s your assessment to this statement and what impact will it have?
Statement released by the co-chairs was essential, as OSCE basically is expressing its attitude on a range of issues, which were differently commented throughout the last year. In particular, structure of the statement itself contains a say.
Firstly, Minsk Group puts forward the issue of strengthening of trust mechanisms, as well as creating international guarantees for negotiations. This was the claim of the Armenian side, thus, they call on the sides to remove all remaining obstacles towards expanding the mission of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office and to establish an investigative mechanism. The second important circumstance was that the co-chairs seem to close the window of Russian initiative, touching upon the necessity of comprehensive settlement of the issue, when agreements should be reached regarding all the elements, and they shouldn’t be left indefinite like, for instance, NK issue is left in uncertainty. Accordingly, the statement was important in that regard.
As for the impact, I didn’t mean it’ll fully prevent escalation, however, it’s a direct message to Azerbaijan, that it’s the position of OSCE MG on the developments.
On account of Russia-Turkey rapprochement, toughening rhetoric of Azerbaijani authorities, there is an impression that Azerbaijan again attempts to have hopes with the settlement within Russia-Turkey agreement. What do you think of this?
In general, influence of international organizations has strictly weakened, in particular, regarding critical regions and issues. Norms have so weakened that having hopes with them or considering the abovementioned statement a 100% guarantee is not correct. However, on the other hand, it shouldn’t be underestimated either, as it’s the only crucial international organization dealing with NK issue, with an international mandate, accordingly, political position of this organization is important.
Of course, the expressed position won’t please Azerbaijan. As we have repeatedly observed during the year, Aliyev will have hopes with the Russian initiative, to which, as already mentioned, has joined Turkey. But we shouldn’t forget either that the statement reminds, that full settlement of the issue isn’t in the positon of OSCE. This is something peculiar to the Russian plan, which basically reshapes the status quo under other territorial realities, pursuing the goal of deploying peacekeepers on the conflict zone. However, as the statement itself closes such perspective for the development, perhaps, it should be recorded, that OSCE, rudely said, hints no matter what the settlement should be like, only the one, complying with the enshrined criteria, will be recognized as legitimate.
Recently Lavrov and Cavusoglu expressed consensus regarding Syrian, as well as Karabakh conflicts. How will this rapprochement be reflected in the ongoing situation on NK conflict zone, on account of your allegation, that Azerbaijan will have hopes with this cooperation?
It should be recorded, that the April war took place under Russia-Turkey sharpening. Despite Russia’s flirt with Turkey, it knows one thing for sure: Turkey still remains a highly unreliable partner. Accordingly, Russia should attempt to keep Turkey in the dimensions of some constructiveness, by never satisfying its interests.
By Araks Martirosyan
