Taking the advantage of Trump’s South Caucasian policy, Moscow will attempt to return the whole regions under its zone of influence, by using NK factor as well: David Shahnazaryan
“The world is at the stage of transition and serious changes,” David Shahnazaryan, head of the Center for Legal and Political Studies “Concord”, told at the expert roundtable on “New uncertainties for the EU and Eurasian integration” held at the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs (AIISA), introducing contemporary challenges of global and European security, which emerge or are possible to emerge in Europe and beyond it as a result of crucial developments.
According to him the world is in a transitional period. The new regime already functions in the USA, “If we say Trump’s victory was unexpected means saying nothing, the world had no doubt that Hillary Clinton will win at US presidential elections, and there were serious centers, serious scientists, anticipating that.”
According to him many experts consider that current situation is a result of Trump’s victory, however, Shahnazaryan himself is far from that opinion, as he believes such procedures also took place in Europe and Lilia Shevtsova properly describes those phenomena, qualifying them as nationalist populism, it’s observed in France, Netherlands, Hungary, and this line may continue. According to the analyst, its most serious alarm, which hasn’t also been equally assessed, was Brexit.
David Shahnazaryan considers that Trump, as stated after the inauguration ceremony on January 20, from the very first day started to implement his economic policy, which according to the analyst, is a reflection of economic projection. He also noted that in authoritarian and totalitarian countries the “protect producers’ interests” principle is functioning, and in free countries—“protect consumers’ interests”, the USA was led by this very principle, the EU was established based on that principle, meanwhile currently the USA is against globalization processes.
The second observation of the speaker was that the “foreign policy is continuation of domestic policy” principle doesn’t function, just the contrary: foreign policy dictates both economic and domestic policies in all countries. Reflecting to security issues, David Shahnazaryan stated the first signs of non-functioning of European securities was observed in 2007 in Vladimir Putin’s speech in Munich, which the West took rather seriously, and which was followed by Russia’s attack on Georgia in 2008, then other phenomena—Ukraine, Crimea, Donbass. According to him obviously the West wasn’t absolutely ready to that.
“Rather deep crisis is observed in Europe—moral, political. Liberal democracy is in serious crisis. What will be in this situation? We see that Europeans realize that they should think of their security, until now we don’t observe activities, already there were statements regarding what will happen to security systems. USA-Great Britain tandem will function and will be leading in that sense. Germany will assume responsibility of Europe’s security issues.
Will Germany be able to implement it? It’s a big issue. Germany possesses resources, however, there are psychological issues. It’ll be urged to become a nuclear country, if things develop this way. New global security system, main architect of which should be the USA, won’t be created during Trump’s administration. Approaches existent in the White House, including Steve Bannon’s views, which are rather popular, allow to draw conclusions, that alliances and multi-format systems seem to concede bilateral relations between the states.
I observe such tendencies from the White House, this principle should be taken into consideration. This is also an implication of the reality that foreign policy of Obama administration, mildly said, wasn’t successful. Serious instability was launched in the Middle East, which, out of unknown reasons, was called Arab spring, in that period Russia launched revisionist, aggressive policy. Two successes in foreign policy—agreement with Iran, relations with Cuba, I don’t see anything else,” Shahnazaryan said.
Touching upon USA-Russia relations David Shahnazaryan stated that the first phase of Trump administration will have rather hard implications for Ukraine. According to him the statement issued by the USA at UN was interesting and crucial, where it was clearly enshrined that sanctions are linked to Crimea, then the telephone conversation between Trump and Poroshenko, which analysts consider a final position. However, Shahnazaryan doesn’t exclude that this way Trump is strengthening his positions with Putin.
Reflecting to the impact of global challenges on the South Caucasus David Shahnazaryan said the policy of the new administration toward Iran was rather concerning—targeted, strict, tough policy. In his words, on account of the circumstance that Armenia-Iran relations have obtained new quality linked to Armenian Defense Minister’s visit to Iran, which means, a security component appeared in those relations. According to Shahnazaryan, Iran is a stabilizing factor in our region.
“This policy of Washington shouldn’t become a hindrance to Armenia’s authorities in Armenia-Iran relations, as those relations are a serious component of national security diversification. New, very complicated factor has appeared in the South Caucasus—contrasts of Israel and Iran, which are vividly expressed in the South Caucasus. If we observe Middle East developments under all these processes, maybe not so obviously, but there is a crucial threat—those very Iran-Israel contrasts.
Its implications in our region may be much more complicated. Washington observes our region as a part amid Moscow-Ankara-Tehran triangle, I don’t consider that Washington’s attention will increase toward our region, Armenia-USA bilateral relations will be maintained, however, the attitude toward the West is unpredictable. It’s probable that Moscow, taking the advantage of the situation, may return the whole region under its zone of influence, and may start using both NK factor and many other issues to that end. In this sense, I consider, there are threats for Georgia. Thus, national populism in Europe will lead to these results, which weren’t anticipated,” David Shahnazaryan said.
By Araks Martirosyan
