There is serious backstage work around NK conflict after the April war: Russian political scientist
“Opportunities of Russian plan success are low,” Alexey Malashenko, member of the Scientific Council of the Moscow Carnegie Center, Chairman of the Religion, Society and Security Program, political analyst, told 168.am, reflecting to noteworthy statements made by OSCE MG US Co-Chair Richard Hoagland.
In a meeting with reporters he informed that although negotiations have slowed down, to resume which parties to the conflict should manifest political will, there are several noteworthy plans. Upon his hints, not only implementation of agreements reached in Vienna and St. Petersburg are meant, but also settlement package, proposal, which as he assures, has approval of OSCE MG Co-Chairs. The most curious is that the US Co-Chair basically didn’t deny existence of plans, which are touched upon in the period of recent 1.5 year, which received the name of “Lavrov plan”. “We don’t call it a “Lavrov plan”,” Hoagland said.
He stated that it’s clear that the Co-Chairs have settlement plans on the negotiation table, which are introduced to the parties to the conflict.
In his words it isn’t’ important whether “Lavrov plan” or Key West, or any other plan is meant, as Madrid Principles will be involved in them, as the parties to the conflict attempt to possibly extract many concessions during the negotiations.
Besides these points, Malashenko believes that new points won’t appear in settlement plans. “Essential point here is that Russia intended to record a breakthrough in NK conflict settlement, although I qualify success possibilities very low. Such reflection of the Co-Chairs to that plan was important, as it creates trust among the conflicting countries, which didn’t trust Russian mediation efforts and circulate “Lavrov plan”.
I consider Hoagland’s reflection allows presuming that it was made by the Russian side, however, it’s acceptable to all Co-Chairs, thus, it should be acceptable in the societies as well. However, I repeat that the issue isn’t in the settlement plan, but the political will or its absence, intention to go to concession,” Malashenko said, adding that concession will be rather negatively perceived in Armenia and Azerbaijan, as the societies didn’t prepare to that.
He stated that having engagement in the Middle East developments, Ukrainian crisis, due to which Russia’s international image is rather weakened, new tension or, moreover, war in its neighborhood, isn’t favorable for Russia, as it’s Russia’s zone of influence, and for this very reason Russia attempted to extinguish the April “fire”, moreover, by making constructive proposals.
According to Malashenko, Hoagland showed, that the West recognizes Russia’s that right, if it doesn’t contradict to interests of the US either, as Russia’s has a different issue today.
Reflecting to possibility of success of this program, Malashenko said after some period of parliamentary elections in Armenia negotiations won’t enter an intensive negotiation round.
“In summer certain progress may be anticipated in resumption of negotiations. Both sides are under serious international threat, although there are no official negotiations. Obviously there is backstage work, as a result of which in both countries such concessions are being touched upon, on which they formerly avoided to speak, I mean status of Nagorno Karabakh and concession of lands. Let me remind, that months ago Aliyev said he was exerted pressure. This wasn’t an accidental statement,” Malashenko said, adding that there is certain process, however, it’s difficult to say to which extent it’ll bring peace to the region.
By Araks Martirosyan
