Europe may Impose Sanctions against Armenia
A collective security deal on a united regional air defense system in the Caucasus, which should be discussed in the National Assembly these days, in fact, is much more dangerous, than simple concerns, that upon that agreement the right to make decisions in Armenia’s air defense system will be provided to Russia.
Firstly, it’s not being touched upon that by adoption of the agreement Armenia will no more be able to use its air defense forces in case Nagorno-Karabakh is under threat. Upon that agreement jurisdiction of Armenia’s air defense forces will be spread only on air space of the Republic of Armenia, and Russia, which is busy with united coordination of air defense forces, naturally won’t allow to use them to defend Karabakh in case of Azerbaijan’s possible aggression, i.e. this agreement will directly damage security of Nagorno-Karabakh, guarantor of which is the Republic of Armenia.
However, the agreement has wider threats out of the frame of the security of Armenian states. Based on information at the disposal of 168.am, adoption of this agreement raised a strict discontent among authorities of Iran, and visit of Edward Nalbandian, RA Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Iran was conditioned by these very discontents.
Official statements on his visit, naturally, don’t reflect Iran’s discontent regarding air defense united system. However, the Iranian side exhorted Armenia to abstain from signing that agreement, as after it air space of Iran near Armenia will become a bordering space of not of Armenia, but of united air defense system with all its implications.
The system initiated by Russia within the West is observed as a step directed against NATO, and up to now not officially, however, by other tubes it’s being transferred that its purpose is control of NATO systems. Thus, Armenia, which cooperates with NATO by a range of formats (moreover, up to now that cooperation is highly assessed by NATO member countries) is being engaged with anti-NATO adventure, which can’t but bother Iran, which attempts to settle relations with the West. It has been stated within the visit of Edward Nalbandian that Hassan Rouhani, president of Iran, will visit Armenia in near future, however exact date wasn’t mentioned. It’s not excluded that the visit may be conditioned by regional issues, as well as by united air defense system.
Armenia may face issues with this agreement not only with Iran, but with Europe as well.
According to the same sources of 168.am Armenia was informed from European diplomatic circles that in case of approval of the accord the EU may review Armenia’s relations with Armenia up to imposing sanctions against Armenia. This means, as compared to our officials, authorities’ and opposition political figures, who either don’t understand, or attempt to mislead the society by understanding, that there is no any threat in it, and it only “strengthens our security” and etc., it’s badly perceived in the world.
Obviously world and regional dividing lines will be more strictly observed after establishment of that system, and Armenia, which at least attempts to maneuver from Russia-West, Russia-NATO confrontation, will directly appear on the other side of the line, where Russia is. With all its implications. And sanctions. And from this perspective messages to Armenia both from Iran and Europe should be accepted not as threats, but as friendly warnings, not to finally attach Armenia to the sinking ship.
In the forthcoming days it’ll become clear whether Armenia’s authorities will be able to avoid from becoming a dividing line or will finally choose the worst from “either..or”-s.
Mikael Sahakyan
