Russia and Azerbaijan Prepare for another “Attack” in Karabakh
After the April four-day war again new nuances are emerging in Karabakh conflict settlement process. Throughout the four-day war failed Russian diplomacy obtains a new impetus by means of Germany and Azerbaijan.
It’s not a secret that OSCE MG Russian Co-chair passed on to active public work during four-day war days. Russian Co-chair Igor Popov, who was formerly unnoticed, started to deliver remarks to the press in Stepenakert, Yerevan and Baku, in case when usually active U.S. Co-chair James Warlick, after the April war reflected only to one humanitarian issue, yielding commenting of all crucial issues to Popov at a joint press conference in Yerevan.
Although wider Russian plans of war prevention under the umbrella of RF president Putin Sragsyan-Aliyev meeting didn’t occur, instead, it was recorded under active mediation of Western Co-chairs, which was qualified as reduction of Russian monopolistic role in peaceful settlement process. The Russian side attempts to maintain and stress its leading role and this time already with rather serious manifestations.
From this perspective two directions of developments are rather noteworthy, which are observed around Karabakh process: Armenian-American work regarding installation of investigative mechanisms, proof of which was OSCE MG U.S. Co-chair James Warlick’s Twitter post on negotiation results with RA FM Edward Nalbandian and Russia-Azerbaijan-Germany cooperation around settlement plan, in the center of which is Russia and its role in peaceful settlement of Karabakh conflict.
One may be convinced in this as well, getting acquainted with Merkel-Aliyev meeting results, which is reflected in a press conference, then OSCE MG Russian Co-chair Igor Popov’s extensive interview to Russian Interfax agency. Replying to the question how the Russian side referred to the proposal of involving non-recognized NKR in negotiations and the issue on expansion of the Minsk Group Co-chairs, including on account of Germany, Popov said that, in fact, at current negotiation phase formally Karabakhi people don’t participate, however, that topic is highlighted during the meetings of Co-chairs in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh.
“I suppose, at a certain stage, for instance after the frame agreement is concluded, there will be possibility for them to return to the negotiation table,” Popov said. He mentioned that high-level agreements around those mechanisms have already been obtained. “Presently OSCE Specialists are developing it. Last week together with other OSCE MG partners he passed expert developments to Azerbaijani and Armenian FMs. We are waiting for conclusion of the sides,” said he, basically for the first time expressing readiness by the Russian side to work towards installation of those mechanisms.
Manvel Sargsyan, head of Armenian Center for Strategic and National Research, who was NKR representative to Armenia in the period of 1992-1995 told “168 Hours” to understand content of Igor Popov’s statement one should observe when Popov decided to speak. Manvel Sargsyan reminded that Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev these days was in Germany, where together with German Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared with statements at a joint press conference. According to Sargsyan, during his press conference Ilham Aliyev paid great attention to Russia in conflict settlement process, the same did Merkel, claiming that Russia has a great role in the settlement process.
“Just exactly after these observations Russian Co-chair Igor Popov gave an interview and basically did the same—it was Russia to conclude ceasefire and Russia also takes steps outside MG efforts. In fact, we somehow observed that after the war Russia was passive, even Lavrov during his visit to Yerevan transferred some function to Germany regarding installation of mechanisms, then the USA activated and we see change of direction, from all sides preference is given to Russia, and it accepts that.
Against that background, when the frame agreement is being touched upon, I link it to the fact that seemingly an attempt is made to launch a process through Russia. It’s difficult to say which policy is behind this, as we deal with great policy—regional, race of superpowers, agreements. However, the idea of frame agreement is already being circulated and at this moment it’s difficult to say—is there a clear proposal or not? During the meetings of MG Co-chairs and the conflicting parties’ FMs, the issue of mechanisms has been discussed, however, presently another proposal is made from the Russian side,” said Manvel Sargsyan.
To the question whether it’s possible that the frame agreement was within the same “Kazan document,” “Lavrov plan” logic, the latter replied, “What else might be there? These documents should be read ten times, after which only it’ll be possible to feel the difference. The same approaches and principles are included, nothing has changed. Criteria beneficial both for Armenia and Azerbaijan may be found there. The curious point is, that recently the contact line was much being touched upon, and not settlement. Currently again talks about settlement plans are being developed.”
For the time being it’s important to understand the disposition of the Armenian side, as it was mentioned, that without the three conditions it’s impossible to continue the negotiations. The issue is that Aliyev attempts to bypass the mechanism installation, it’s quite obvious. Presently they have hopes with Russia, and the latter, in its turn, is not so interested in mechanism installation, Azerbaijan is leading its course.”
According to Manvel Sargsyan Azerbaijan doesn’t need settlement plan, it doesn’t negotiate for that purpose, Azerbaijan needs to create a beneficial condition to engage more interests in favor of itself, again to further through war. In his words, again Azerbaijan exerts efforts to create beneficial conditions for war. “If we don’t observe the issue from that standpoint, again we’ll be cheated, thinking that people intend to sign some document. Not to be deceived, the clear line should be taken. Work with other countries, like Azerbaijan works. The latter convinces Germany, and it agrees, we observe their exact plans, which they change power balance towards them, Armenia should perform such work, should put forward issues. Principal policy should be pursued,” Sargsyan said.
Andrei Piontkovsky, Russian oppositional politician, publicist and analyst, observed the issue in a more global context, he said that the Russian side maintains and will maintain monopoly in peaceful settlement and generally on the conflict zone, as it used to, as changes in the policies led by Armenia and Azerbaijan haven’t been recorded. And all current authorities of Russia don’t have the desire to yield to the West in Karabakh, moreover, they should pay even more attention to the settlement process, as challenges and threats for Putin-led policy have increased, and the South Caucasus is a strategic region.
“The existent situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, in particular, the tension, allow Moscow to show itself from political interest perspective more and more, increasing its presence on the conflict zone. In my conviction currently, as media outlets report Lavrov’s document is on Russian presidential table, and numerous flows have been recorded from it—return of regions neighboring Karabakh, entrance of peacekeepers to Karabakh. This is the purpose of Russian plan,” Piontkovsky said. In his conviction as soon as balance of external powers around NK conflict hasn’t changed and Russian diplomacy wasn’t oppressed, it’s senseless to anticipate that breakthrough will be recorded during presidential meetings. In this case, he assures, that proposal by the Russian side will be leading, and it’s not important where the presidents will meet.
By Araks Martirosyan
