President Putin is trying to build a separate, Russia-alone format for presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan, because he doesn’t want a settlement: Matthew Bryza
“Another Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting will be launched in late June,” James Warlick, the U.S. Co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, said commenting on the second meeting of the conflicting states after the four-day war. Although miscellaneous information was being circulated regarding venue and day of the meeting, they have been officially confirmed by Yuri Ushakov, assistant to RF president Putin, who informed the Russian press that Vladimir Putin, RF president, will have a separate meeting with presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev on June 20 in Saint Petersburg, then a trilateral meeting will be held around Karabakh issue. “Naturally, an active attempt will be initiated by us to support the sides in conflict settlement. We have already played, I must say, even a decisive role in suspension of military operations, which were ongoing,” Ushakov said.
“168 Hours” talked on the meeting with Matthew Bryza, former US Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Former US Assistant Secretary of State for the South Caucasus, former OSCE MG U.S. Co-chair, Director of the International Center for Defence studies in Tallinn, Estonia.
Mr. Bryza after the high-level Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting in Vienna another presidential meeting is being shaped in the forthcoming days. To all probabilities, this time the meeting will be organized in Russia, Saint Petersburg, which was informed by Russia’s Foreign Minister. In your opinion, what may be anticipated from the forthcoming meeting, on account of the fact that it’s launched in Russia?
This sort of a meeting is going to be a follow-up to the Vienna meeting. This meeting, I think, provides the opportunity to resume a civilized dialogue and lay the foundation for progress later towards a framework agreement, based on the Madrid document. It’s good that they are meeting. I think, it’s also a sign that president Putin is trying to fill the diplomatic vacuum that was originally lapsed when the Obama administration was so relatively quiet during and after the violence in early April. I think, in general president Putin has no interest in the settlement, he can generate constructive discussion between presidents Sargsyan and Aliyev should be welcomed, except that there will never be a settlement, if it’s Russia alone, as Putin likes. He wants to lead the process, because I don’t think either side would trust that sort of a negotiation, they would want some balance from other Minsk Group Co-chairs.
Dmitri Peskov, Russia’s presidential spokesman, then Maria Zakharova, Russia’s MFA official representative, reflecting to the meeting stated that it’ll be a trilateral meeting, i.e. Sargsyan-Putin-Aliyev format. Supposedly, MG Western Co-chairs won’t participate in negotiations. Such an attempt was made during former meetings held under the Russian umbrella. What does this mean?
In principal, if president Putin, like president Medvedev used to be, were committed to creating a breakthrough and hoping to finalize the basic principles of the settlement, that would be great. I don’t believe what he wants to do, I believe what he wants to do is leave the impression among the presidents Sargsyan and Aliyev, that only he, president Putin is a real player in this. I don’t believe he ever wanted a settlement. Believe that Medvedev maybe intended. But I always believe that president Putin would have found a way to block a final settlement, because he is interested in keeping a conflict in the South Caucasus bubbling or boiling.
Thus, it’s good that the presidents are meeting, but under president Putin’s leadership, I don’t think it’s possible for them to reach settlement, as he doesn’t want it.
This means do you agree with the opinions, that parallel to Vienna, Russia launches a new process and it won’t fit into the logic of Vienna meeting, where Russia will appear in its name only? In this case, should we anticipate continuation of agreements reached in Vienna?
My concern is exactly what you said. President Putin is trying to build a separate, Russia-alone format for presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan and I think he’s trying to do that not because he wants a settlement, precisely the opposite, because he doesn’t want a settlement for ones to make it appear that he is, as it’s said in colloquial American English, “the only game in town.” I think that it’s a cynical attempt to pretend like Russia wants a settlement. And so look like a peacemaker, he just probably building support to lift sanctions, because this sanction is due to Russia’s invasion into Ukraine. And I hope people see, this is a cynical attempt to get sanctions lifted for the mediation process for the MG but not to solve.
You mentioned, that the Co-chairs won’t trust such initiatives. In this case can they or how can they reject and move the process to the format of the three presidents? Judging from the statements by the Armenian officials, it can be claimed that the Armenian side is interested in the process launched within the Minsk Group.
I know that’s true and I think it would be very difficult in terms of diplomatic practice to refuse a meeting between the two presidents with president Putin. They wouldn’t do that. So the way out to this problem, of course is that the American president and the French president became quite active. I was in Washington last week and, of course, one of the key topics was the Obama administration’s approach to the Nagorno-Karabakh mediation process. I was very critical of the U.S. initially for being “absent” in April. But I’m really pleased how active secretary Kerry has been and now it wants to be. secretary Kerry agrees what I just said and very much wishes to play an active role in the four MG mediation process, so that’s the way because the MG is going again, at least at the level of four Ministers. Secretary Kerry remains committed and I think we’ll see the MG to be active again, which the only way to a solution.
You touched upon the framework agreement, like Igor Popov, Russian Co-chair of OSCE MG, mentioned in his extensive interview given recently. He stated about the possibility of signing a frame agreement. What does this mean and how should it be explained that this is being touched upon by Igor Popov?
In my mind a frame agreement or framework agreement is in a Madrid document, on the so-called basic principles, we all know what they are: intermediary status for Nagorno-Karabakh, loss of the territories, Lachin corridor, peacekeepers and a vote by the population of Nagorno-Karabakh for their future. That’s been on the table since 2007 already 8-9 years. In my assessment, that’s the only logical framework. I hope Popov had this in mind. If president Putin were able to convince the two presidents to sign that agreement or something close to it that would be fantastic, and we should only cheer. I guess Ambassador Popov has something else in mind, and we’ll have to see what that may be.
In your opinion, is there a possibility of signing such a document on account of moods existent in Armenia and in Azerbaijan?
No, I don’t think that would be realistic at this point precisely. The main realistic hope for this upcoming meeting between the presidents, is one: to agree on concrete steps and implement the escalatory measures that were discussed in Vienna, to implement them, and number two, that can happen is to create a positive mood, positive psychological mood to allow in the future additional meeting to invigorate the mediation process, whose goal is to agree on the basic principles like those in the Madrid document.
By Araks Martirosyan
