New Agenda or Sequel of Vienna in St.Petersburg?
As already known, after the four-day April war the second Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting will be launched on June 20 in St.Petersburg with the participation of Vladimir Putin, RF president. Russian diplomacy was obviously active in NK conflict peaceful settlement after Sargsyan-Aliyev Vienna meeting held on May 16 with the participation of Foreign Ministers of OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs. Its peak was the extensive interview of Igor Popov, MG Co-chair (Russia) on the settlement process, where he touched upon both installation of investigative mechanisms and the possibility of signing a framework agreement. After that Grigory Karasin, RF Deputy Foreign Minister, actively communicated with French and Azerbaijani sides, as a result of which, basically, the agreement on organizing a meeting in Saint Petersburg was obtained.
It’s noteworthy that this time also Russian initiative was being organized upon its traditional format, keeping some “distance” from the MG French and U.S. parties. These days Yuri Ushakov, assistant to RF president, informed that Putin, firstly, will receive presidents Sargsyan and Aliyev separately, after which presidential summit will be held. He also stated that the Russian side works with other OSCE MG Co-chairs totally under cooperation terms. However, statement by Natacha Rajakovich, Spokesperson and Acting Deputy Head of Communication and Media Relations Section at OSCE, followed this, according to which OSCE isn’t participating in preparation activities of St.Petersburg meeting, after which it was being circulated that MG Western Co-chairs won’t participate in the meeting either.
However, James Warlick, OSCE MG Co-chair (USA) and Pierre Andrieu (France) during the interviews to Azerbaijani press confirmed their participation in the trilateral meeting between the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia. Warlick expressed hope that the Vienna meeting held on May 16 will give its outcomes, “I’m looking forward to that meeting. We hope, that the sides will conclude results of agreements on implementation of investigative mechanisms and will resume negotiations around multilateral peace agreement.” “I will also take part in that meeting, like the U.S. and Russian Co-chairs. Naturally, we have great expectations from that meeting. We hope, during the meeting presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan will restore mutual trust and record progress in the conflict settlement process,” the French Co-chair said.
What agreements will be reached at the forthcoming meeting and why Western Co-chairs got engaged with the meeting, when participation of OSCE in preparation activities was initially denied? Alexander Skakov, PhD in History, Working Group Coordinator at the Central Eurasia Research Center, RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, stated that after the April war, basically the MG, which was in condition of fading needed to quickly resume presidential talks, as it’s better, when the presidents meet, rather than the contrary. In his conviction pressure by all MG Co-chairs towards the sides, in particular, towards Azerbaijan, is needed. In his opinion, meeting and pressure was basically recorded, war threat on the contact line has somewhat reduced, agreements have been reached, however, they haven’t been enshrined in any way.
According to Skakov, the forthcoming meeting, despite the statement by Natacha Rajakovich, has been agreed with all MG Co-chairs and they will take part in the meeting. According to him, it’s not beneficial for Russia to take steps, which haven’t been agreed with the EU and the USA. In his words, policy by Russia pursued in the recent period shows that very tendency. “From this perspective, I consider, Vienna meeting results will be discussed in the forthcoming meeting. If you remember, statements, which followed Vienna meeting, included parts that the sides agreed on some measures, which should strengthen ceasefire regime on the contact line. Resolutions, signatures, or at least documents should be available in the forthcoming meeting, which will oblige the sides to obey agreements reached in Vienna. That is, resolutions should be adopted, which will allow neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan to regress and claim, that there were no such agreements, like it happened after Vienna. I think, main purpose of the meeting to be held in St.Petersburg will be this,” Alexander Skakov said.
Asked on account of talks on rehabilitation of Kazan scenario and statements by Russian Co-chair, whether it was possible that a document would be offered to the sides by that very logic, Skakov gave a negative reply. “The document is a distant perspective between Armenia and Azerbaijan, I don’t observe possibility for such a document, there is no such possibility, when ceasefire isn’t being maintained. All current efforts are directed to strengthening of ceasefire regime and prevention of new military clashes. This is the major purpose and there is no need to touch upon other document today,” Skakov said.
Alexey Malashenko, Russian political scientist said, that he didn’t have great expectations from the presidential meeting. In his conviction, like during the previous ones, in the forthcoming meeting the presidents will talk, and ceasefire of recent years will be observed. According to the political scientist war isn’t preferable to any mediator and side, thus during this meeting mechanisms of war prevention and means will be covered.
“I told long ago, that I don’t imagine settlement, and such conflicts are being extended and not settled for dozens of years. This is one of those conflicts. The four-day war clarified the existent threat around Karabakh, which needs to be neutralized. I think Co-chairs and the sides will attempt to do this,” he noticed. In his words, Russia is pursuing its own policy in Karabakh and between the conflicting countries, with which they may either agree or not.
“But war isn’t beneficial for Russia either. One of the first sides not interested in war is Russia, as the latter will appear in a complicated situation before Armenia and Azerbaijan,” he said.
Alexander Rar, German analyst, told 168.am, that disposition expressed by Angela Merkel these days on Russia mediation efforts towards Karabakh conflict revealed the fact, that currently Russia agrees its steps with OSCE Western Co-chairs, in particular, in the period, when Germany attempts to give additional importance to OSCE, restoring authority and functions of that organization. “Germany is currently active in its assessments on peaceful settlement of Karabakh conflict, as an OSCE MG Co-chair, as it attempts to raise OSCE,” he stressed.
According to the German analyst statement by the OSCE representative may be explained by the following way, “The fact of the meeting was discussed and agreed with the Co-chairs, and organizational activities have been trusted to the host. Judging from Popov’s interview, we may say there is anticipation, that the sides will discuss the issue of installation of investigative mechanisms at the forthcoming meeting, basically strengthening agreements reached in Vienna. In my conviction, it’s early touching upon making a document. By another meeting maybe ground will be provided for serious negotiations,” Rar said.
By Araks Martirosyan
