“By comprising a part of EEU and not acting you endanger your national security”

Interview with Areg Galstyan (Russia), PhD, regular contributor to Forbes, the National Interest, the Hill and the American Thinker, head and editor-in-chief of “American Studies” Research Center.

Mr. Galstyan, how should Armenia position itself in this stormy region regarding policy and economy?

First and foremost, I consider development of clear strategy necessary both in domestic and foreign policies. Of course, it’s necessary to focus on internal issues first, as there are serious internal challenges, which are linked to demography. Flow of population is really big and Armenia’s hard geopolitical condition, blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan, the latter’s regular blows require speedy solution of the issue of demography.

Someone should serve in the army, someone should do agriculture, produce food…Thus, human capital should become a main ground to solve all internal issues. If keeping people in Armenia won’t succeed, if it won’t succeed create favorable conditions for people living in Diaspora (let them be Armenian or no), that people came and developed business, cast roots here, made families, it’ll be impossible to solve others without solving this crucial issue.

When we speak of economy, domestic policy and etc., we seem to forget that on the basis of any policy, let it be internal or external, lies a person. People create policy, it doesn’t develop itself. Economy also depends on people. If, roughly said, whole Armenia is just a market of 2 million, it isn’t attractive for investments, the market should be big, there should be high level of consumption, production of high technologies and etc. Thus, first and foremost, it’s necessary to focus on those internal issues.

Currently it’s impossible to suspend migration flow, however, steps may be taken, which may make people intending to migrate, stay in the Homeland. It’s necessity.

Armenia comprises a part of CSTO, which should become a security guarantor, however, it doesn’t take steps even in case of incidents on Armenian border. To your mind, how should this issue be solved?

By involving in CSTO, Armenia solved some assignments. In fact, it’s clear that Armenia’s presence in CSTO provides the opportunity to institutionalize relations with Russia, i.e. CSTO interests Armenia, firstly, out of Russian factor, and this is creation of another “single flag”, under which Armenia can have support from Russia in various issues. Everybody knows which issues are meant, from which—Azerbaijani aggression, Turkish factor, which undoubtedly is considered important.

However, as you correctly said, very often CSTO doesn’t reflect to this or that incident, taking place not on Karabakh-Azerbaijan border, but on Armenia-Azerbaijan border. Here, I consider, Armenia’s more clear and concrete position is necessary, as being an equal member of that organization, Armenia has all the possibilities to express its discontent, convene CSTO extraordinary session and discuss an exact fact of violation. But I never noticed that Armenian authorities demanded from CSTO to express its position.

What do you think, why don’t they demand?

Frankly speaking, I don’t know and I attempt to understand for myself why they don’t show that reaction. Probably, the Armenian authorities attempt to show they can settle the issue without interference of any organization, including CSTO. Probably there are so-called crypto-political reasons, which we aren’t aware of. However, I’m sure there are not only objective, but rather subjective arguments as well.

What do you think how should Armenia use its relations with EEU and the EU?

Prior to becoming a EEU member, Armenia was pursuing a complementary and balanced policy, i.e. functioned “both…and” formula, and not “either…or”. However, by getting involved in EEU Armenia has made its political, economic and even civilization choice, i.e. in this case Armenia handed a part of its sovereignty to EEU, which is accepted in case of likewise organizations. Along with it, you can support that organization at hard times.

For this very reason the state sacrifices a part of its national sovereignty, receiving something instead. But when you sacrifice your sovereignty and have nothing in response, I don’t even know how it is called, that logic lacks. I’d call it rather unperspective policy. In this case Armenia should cooperate with EEU, as it’s a member country, however, at the same time, productive cooperation ways should be sought.

Armenia should show its clear position, and say what it exactly wants from EEU. If questions emerge with which Armenia disagrees, it should clearly state on it. However, very frequently Armenia turns a blind eye on it. Armenia in no way replies to anti-Armenian activities of EEU member countries. When e.g. Eurasian summit moved to Moscow from Yerevan out of unclear reasons, only for the purpose that they didn’t want to bother Azerbaijan. What connection does Azerbaijan have to EEU? Why is its factor taken into consideration? Why doesn’t Armenia reflect to it? All this is a conundrum for me.

At the same time, we shouldn’t lose our relations with the EU, the USA and other central powers, as they are of paramount importance to us. We shouldn’t forget either that the big Diaspora, which we can’t simply throw away and leave to the mercy of fate for the reason that we’re involved in EEU. This or that way we need to maintain those bridges and it depends on us how productive those bridges may be. Russia can’t say to Armenia—don’t cooperate with other states.

There are opinions that the very Russia urged Armenia become a EEU member. Armenia was negotiating with the EU, and as experts claim, it changed its decision overnight and engaged with EEU. Isn’t this suspicious?

In some sense—yes. As initially a decision was being touched upon, then it quickly changed. It seems to me that here maybe pressure was exerted from Russia and principally, this is normal. Russia perceives the region as a zone of its influence, let’s don’t forget either that only in Armenia Russian military presence is kept, it exists neither in Georgia, nor in Azerbaijan, and that Armenia is a CSTO member, a military ally. Accordingly, I think Russia coercively made Armenia become a EEU member.

That would be strange if Russia allowed Armenia divert its way. If you were Russia and your strategic ally decided to change the direction, what would you do? However, I don’t consider this was the main critical issue. Armenia was waiting which side would make a more beneficial proposal regarding security. Besides, I know and I can clearly state that Russia has never touched upon closure of Metsamor APP, and one of the demands of the EU was exactly that. That APP is a serious factor not only on the level of domestic, but foreign policy as well. It isn’t accidental that Azerbaijan, Turkey and other states are so interested in closure of Metsamor’s APP.

Which should be Armenia’s economic and political priorities?

As a said the most important internal issue is demography, suspension of migration. Unemployment is a serious issue as well. It’s also serious that Armenia’s regions are being depopulated, active work should be implemented there. If in big cities like Yerevan, Gyumri and Vanadzor some population may be observed, although they don’t leave, principally we edify that today there is only Yerevan in Armenia and the rest. This already edifies of serious issues. Solution of these three issues will allow to somewhat change the domestic policy background.

As for foreign policy priorities, I consider Armenia should develop a clear policy in all crucial issues. Firstly, it refers to EEU, if currently Armenia turns a blind eye on these or those steps, which are anti-Armenian in their nature, if it doesn’t develop its position, doesn’t speak of it, then Azerbaijan and Turkey, having serious influence over Kazakhstan and Belarus, will implement their anti-Armenian lobbying inside the organization, in which Armenia is found as well.

Thus, by being inside the EEU and not acting you threaten your national security, existence of your state, as you aren’t independent now like you used to be without comprising a part of that organization. You have given part of your sovereignty and many issues are solved jointly, and not with your vote. If your voice isn’t heard there at all, all decisions will be taken instead of you. This situation should be radically changed.