To all probabilities, the Armenian side will concede not 5 regions, as anticipated by the “Russian plan,” but for instance, 2 or 3, for which details on holding a referendum on Karabakh’s status will be more certain.
“Under any conflict certain possibility of resumption of such operations is existent, however, I consider, that currently that possibility is even less, than prior to the outbreak of war. In any case, it’s less probable that they’d like to repeat their attempt in near future. And Armenia continues to get armed, and it has the right.”
“Erdogan took a bold and unexpected step, clearly realizing what benefits it may gain, and by that step it surprised Russia. Currently the Russian side should understand how it should reflect to Turkey’s attempts of rapprochement, as it shouldn’t neither get excited nor lose Turkey, as Russia-Turkey relations won’t overcome another crisis, Turkey shouldn’t be “threatened” and instigated by acknowledging Erdogan’s sore spots.”
There is a serious risk that long-range ground-to-ground missiles would be used and casualties, particularly civilian, be much higher in the effort to gain a decisive ground advantage. In the wake of the April fighting, the publics in Armenia and Azerbaijan are more ready for military solutions than at any time in 25 years. Russia sees itself as the regional arbiter which is bound to intervene, not least because of its tight treaty relations with Armenia.
“I told previously that Azerbaijan will attempt to make use of any instability in the region, which it attempted to do in April. I’m also of the conviction that activities of Azerbaijan with Turkey aren’t particularly agreed, as Turkey attempts to keep some distance from the conflict, and Azerbaijan strives to involve Turkey. Simply any instability is in favor of Azerbaijan. I think, for a short-term future rehabilitation of Russia-Turkey relations will be positively reflected on NK conflict, however, it won’t completely eliminate the threat for NK conflict outbreak, as Azerbaijan intends to reach its imagined NK conflict settlement through exerting pressure.”
“During the session serious attention was attached to international security, with which deal CSTO member countries and on which depends their stability, and one of those issues is NK conflict as well. Thus, during the session the conflict was discussed and respective statement was adopted both on NK conflict and Syrian crisis,” Bordyuzha said.
“As I already mentioned, rather serious efforts are exerted, in particular, by the MG Co-Chairs. This is not the time of public diplomacy, and I don’t tend to comment on one of the public statements. Let the diplomacy work,” he said.
Neil Macfarlane, professor of International Relations at Oxford University, specialist on Russia and the South Caucasus, PhD in political science, positively assessed the process by the MG towards making presidential meeting frequent, launched after the April war. In his words, currently the Russian side seemingly puts forward its separate plans in Nagorno-Karabakh, attempting to move towards the direction of cooperation with the USA and France, with the perspective of settling wider relations with the West.
Germany as an OSCE chairing country “seeks to settle the Nagorno Karabakh conflict,” Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs, said to journalists today in Tbilisi.
“We highly appreciate the efforts of all the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries aimed at organizing meetings at the highest level. However, at least it is improper, when not France – the inviting side, but one of the invitees voices the French proposal which is still under consideration.”
